United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results
*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.
Calculations for US Natural Gas
Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.
Expectancy calculation for 13 signal(s) occurring before 22 April 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (76.92% * 9.84%) + (0% * 0%) - (23.08% * 64.01%) = -7.20%.
Wins: 10 Breakevens: 0 Losses: 3
To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.
The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.
50 day low Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)
This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each 50 day low entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.
Key:
= profit point not achieved.
= profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
= profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%.
= profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.
| Signal Date and Score | Buy Signal | Price | Performance (mouseover for details) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5% | 6% | 7.5% | 10% | 20% | |||
| 08 April 2026 LOW smart_toy0.252 | 50 Day Low | $ 11.09 | |||||
| 05 January 2026 LOW smart_toy0.431 | 50 Day Low | $ 11.44 | |||||
| 16 October 2025 MEDIUM smart_toy0.644 | 50 Day Low | $ 11.70 | |||||
| 04 August 2025 MEDIUM smart_toy0.415 | 50 Day Low | $ 13.10 | |||||
| 01 July 2025 MEDIUM smart_toy0.208 | 50 Day Low | $ 15.03 | |||||
| 17 April 2025 MEDIUM FIRE SALE smart_toy0.964 | 50 Day Low | $ 17.02 | |||||
| 31 October 2024 MEDIUM smart_toy0.243 | 50 Day Low | $ 12.84 | |||||
| 16 July 2024 MEDIUM smart_toy0.741 | 50 Day Low | $ 14.63 | |||||
| 27 March 2024 MEDIUM smart_toy0.736 | 50 Day Low | $ 14.40 | |||||
| 08 February 2024 MEDIUM smart_toy0.594 | 50 Day Low | $ 17.74 | |||||
| 12 December 2023 LOW smart_toy0.667 | 50 Day Low | $ 18.34 | |||||
| 09 November 2023 MEDIUM smart_toy0.39 | 50 Day Low | $ 25.52 | |||||
| 05 September 2023 MEDIUM smart_toy0.359 | 50 Day Low | $ 26.62 | |||||
| 03 May 2023 MEDIUM smart_toy0.995 | 50 Day Low | $ 25.20 | |||||
| 23 March 2023 MEDIUM smart_toy0.983 | 50 Day Low | $ 29.04 | |||||
| 17 February 2023 LOW smart_toy0.992 | 50 Day Low | $ 31.24 | |||||
| 06 January 2023 LOW smart_toy0.989 | 50 Day Low | $ 47.50 | |||||
| 05 December 2022 LOW smart_toy0.429 | 50 Day Low | $ 69.68 | |||||
| 27 September 2022 MEDIUM smart_toy0.939 | 50 Day Low | $ 93.96 | |||||
| 23 June 2022 MEDIUM smart_toy0.993 | 50 Day Low | $ 88.54 | |||||
| 22 November 2021 LOW smart_toy0.902 | 50 Day Low | $ 63.10 | |||||
The data for United States Natural Gas Fund (exchange: ARCX symbol: UNG) was last updated 30 Apr 2026 07:01. Data for this ETF is available from 04 Jan 2021 - 29 Apr 2026.