United States Gasoline Fund (UGA) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results

Signal:                
                   
              [ What are these? | Switch to UGA's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target:               -or-  
Show signal scores:       Scores:           Market sector score:       [ What are these scores? ]
Expectancy: 7.38%.   Win rate: 87.50%.   Sharpe Ratio: -2.433.   Maximum drawdown: -29.51% on 09 December 2022.
Mean CAGR: 148.28%. Time in market: 2532 days.   Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $2016.71 on 06 November 2025.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)


*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for Gasoline

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 24 signal(s) occurring before 03 August 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (87.50% * 8.33%) + (12.50% * 0.74%) - (0% * 0%) = 7.38%.
Wins: 21 Breakevens: 3 Losses: 0

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

MegaDump Lite Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each MegaDump Lite entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Date Buy Signal Price Scores Performance (mouseover for details)
Signal Sector WR Speed Risk Overall 5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
07 August 2026 Mega Dump Lite $ 111.48 33 19 100 91 75 35 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
06 July 2026  bubble_chart Mega Dump Lite $ 106.44 44 15 100 89 77 38 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt schedule schedule
01 June 2026  bubble_chart Mega Dump Lite $ 107.38 39 16 100 89 77 36 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
28 April 2026  bubble_chart Mega Dump Lite $ 113.18 28 29 100 87 77 36 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt schedule
26 March 2026  bubble_chart Mega Dump Lite $ 98.62 23 24 100 86 77 30 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
22 December 2025  bubble_chart Mega Dump Lite $ 62.85 54 27 100 85 82 50 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
18 November 2025  bubble_chart Mega Dump Lite $ 68.65 42 25 100 88 84 43 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
15 October 2025  bubble_chart Mega Dump Lite $ 61.56 40 28 100 80 82 42 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
01 August 2025  bubble_chart Mega Dump Lite $ 63.34 26 12 100 80 77 26 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
30 June 2025  bubble_chart Mega Dump Lite $ 60.35 36 13 100 81 78 32 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
13 May 2025  bubble_chart Mega Dump Lite $ 60.72 39 23 100 79 79 40 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
11 April 2025  bubble_chart Mega Dump Lite $ 55.72 91 62 100 75 80 85 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
11 March 2025  bubble_chart Mega Dump Lite $ 59.27 42 38 100 75 80 47 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
31 October 2024  bubble_chart Mega Dump Lite $ 61.30 43 24 100 70 82 41 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
24 September 2024  bubble_chart Mega Dump Lite $ 60.66 46 34 100 66 82 48 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
23 August 2024  bubble_chart Mega Dump Lite $ 62.77 37 22 100 86 86 38 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
18 June 2024  bubble_chart Mega Dump Lite $ 66.15 27 23 100 94 94 32 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
16 May 2024  bubble_chart Mega Dump Lite $ 67.16 32 32 100 92 94 40 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
17 January 2024  bubble_chart Mega Dump Lite $ 61.07 37 16 100 86 94 35 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
15 December 2023  bubble_chart Mega Dump Lite $ 61.64 44 41 100 89 96 51 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
13 November 2023  bubble_chart Mega Dump Lite $ 62.79 33 56 100 89 96 48 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
10 October 2023  bubble_chart Mega Dump Lite $ 63.56 27 31 100 90 96 36 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
16 May 2023  bubble_chart Mega Dump Lite $ 57.34 69 41 100 86 99 65 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
14 April 2023  bubble_chart Mega Dump Lite $ 64.38 42 28 select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
14 March 2023  bubble_chart Mega Dump Lite $ 56.93 74 65 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
08 February 2023  bubble_chart Mega Dump Lite $ 59.54 41 27 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
27 December 2022  bubble_chart Mega Dump Lite $ 57.31 80 79 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
22 November 2022  bubble_chart Mega Dump Lite $ 58.80 64 62 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
30 September 2022  bubble_chart Mega Dump Lite $ 52.50 84 82 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
29 August 2022  bubble_chart Mega Dump Lite $ 58.53 72 38 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
26 July 2022  bubble_chart Mega Dump Lite $ 63.04 85 49 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
23 June 2022  bubble_chart Mega Dump Lite $ 70.66 81 76 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
19 April 2022  bubble_chart Mega Dump Lite $ 57.81 49 38 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
17 March 2022  bubble_chart Mega Dump Lite $ 55.86 30 75 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
28 December 2021 Mega Dump Lite $ 41.30 40 38 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
23 November 2021 Mega Dump Lite $ 41.38 39 26 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
24 August 2021 Mega Dump Lite $ 34.78 38 27 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
22 July 2021 Mega Dump Lite $ 35.86 31 22 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
26 April 2021 Mega Dump Lite $ 31.70 28 17 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
24 March 2021 Mega Dump Lite $ 31.35 30 29 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt

 

The data for United States Gasoline Fund (exchange: ARCX symbol: UGA) was last updated 13 Aug 2026 07:17. Data for this ETF is available from 04 Jan 2021 - 10 Aug 2026.