United States Gasoline Fund (UGA) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results

Signal:                  
                  [ What are these? | Switch to UGA's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target:               -or-  
Show signal scores:       Threshold:           [ What are these scores? ]
Expectancy: 6.13%.   Win rate: 80.85%.   Sharpe Ratio: -6.705.   Maximum drawdown: -29.47% on 09 December 2022.
Mean CAGR: 120.09%. Time in market: 8255 days.   Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $1939.84 on 11 February 2026.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)


*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for Gasoline

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 47 signal(s) occurring before 26 May 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (80.85% * 8.48%) + (10.64% * 2.38%) - (8.51% * 11.50%) = 6.13%.
Wins: 38 Breakevens: 5 Losses: 4

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

 

Double Seven Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each Double Seven entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date and Score Buy Signal Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
01 June 2026  bubble_chart   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 107.38 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
19 May 2026  bubble_chart   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 123.38 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
28 April 2026  bubble_chart   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 113.18 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt schedule schedule
17 April 2026  bubble_chart   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 96.30 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
26 March 2026  bubble_chart   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 98.62 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
17 March 2026  bubble_chart   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 98.50 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
17 February 2026  bubble_chart   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 68.04 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
13 February 2026  bubble_chart   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 67.79 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
05 January 2026  bubble_chart   cards_starMEDIUM     Double Seven $ 61.66 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
01 December 2025  bubble_chart   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 67.06 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
28 October 2025  bubble_chart   cards_starMEDIUM     Double Seven $ 64.12 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
27 October 2025  bubble_chart   cards_starMEDIUM     Double Seven $ 64.54 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
26 September 2025  bubble_chart   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 66.12 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
23 September 2025  bubble_chart   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 64.86 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
25 August 2025  bubble_chart   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 64.49 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
22 August 2025  bubble_chart   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 64.31 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
22 July 2025  bubble_chart   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 61.63 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
21 July 2025  bubble_chart   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 62.00 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
25 February 2025  bubble_chart   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 62.71 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
23 January 2025  bubble_chart   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 64.83 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
13 August 2024  bubble_chart   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 65.82 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
11 July 2024  bubble_chart   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 67.87 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
29 May 2024  bubble_chart   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 66.32 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
26 April 2024  bubble_chart   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 72.70 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
26 March 2024  bubble_chart   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 70.42 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
21 February 2024  bubble_chart   cards_starMEDIUM     Double Seven $ 65.54 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
13 November 2023  bubble_chart   cards_starMEDIUM     Double Seven $ 62.79 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
31 October 2023  bubble_chart   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 63.04 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
10 October 2023  bubble_chart   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 63.56 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
29 September 2023  bubble_chart   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 68.16 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
06 September 2023  bubble_chart   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 71.28 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
28 August 2023  bubble_chart   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 70.81 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
04 August 2023  bubble_chart   cards_starMEDIUM     Double Seven $ 70.56 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
25 July 2023  bubble_chart   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 70.86 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
26 June 2023  bubble_chart   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 60.45 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
23 June 2023  bubble_chart   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 59.82 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
23 May 2023  bubble_chart   cards_starMEDIUM     Double Seven $ 60.66 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
22 May 2023  bubble_chart   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 59.62 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
19 April 2023  bubble_chart   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 60.96 select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
18 April 2023  bubble_chart   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 62.46 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
31 January 2023  bubble_chart   cards_starMEDIUM     Double Seven $ 60.70 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
30 January 2023  bubble_chart   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 61.04 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
13 December 2022  bubble_chart   cards_starMEDIUM     Double Seven $ 51.84 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
11 November 2022  bubble_chart   cards_starMEDIUM     Double Seven $ 62.13 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
10 November 2022  bubble_chart   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 60.65 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
30 September 2022  bubble_chart   cards_starMEDIUM     Double Seven $ 52.50 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
23 September 2022  bubble_chart   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 51.52 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
29 August 2022  bubble_chart   cards_starMEDIUM     Double Seven $ 58.53 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
22 August 2022  bubble_chart   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 58.84 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
26 July 2022  bubble_chart   cards_starMEDIUM     Double Seven $ 63.04 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
19 July 2022  bubble_chart   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 62.90 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
22 June 2022  bubble_chart   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 69.51 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
17 June 2022  bubble_chart   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 70.62 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
20 May 2022  bubble_chart   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 68.85 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
16 May 2022  bubble_chart   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 71.51 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
18 April 2022  bubble_chart   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 59.98 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
12 April 2022  bubble_chart   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 55.60 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
15 March 2022  bubble_chart   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 52.17 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
11 March 2022  bubble_chart   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 57.42 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
07 January 2022   LOW     Double Seven $ 42.56 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
06 December 2021   LOW     Double Seven $ 37.13 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
02 November 2021   LOW     Double Seven $ 43.46 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
01 October 2021   LOW     Double Seven $ 39.10 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
30 August 2021   LOW     Double Seven $ 36.72 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
27 July 2021   LOW     Double Seven $ 36.88 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
25 June 2021   LOW     Double Seven $ 36.42 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
24 May 2021   LOW     Double Seven $ 33.84 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
20 April 2021   LOW     Double Seven $ 32.59 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
19 March 2021   LOW     Double Seven $ 30.98 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
25 January 2021   LOW     Double Seven $ 26.62 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt

 

The data for United States Gasoline Fund (exchange: ARCX symbol: UGA) was last updated 14 Jun 2026 16:17. Data for this ETF is available from 04 Jan 2021 - 02 Jun 2026.