iShares MCSI Japan (EWJ) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results globe

Buy indicator:                
              [ What are these indicators? | Switch to EWJ's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target:               -or-  

Expectancy: 4.91%.   Win rate: 63.64%.   Sharpe Ratio: -2.255.   Maximum drawdown: -28.02% on 13 October 2022.
Mean CAGR: 62.15%. Time in market: 2962 days.   Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $1087.82 on 10 January 2024.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)


*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for Japan

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 11 signal(s) occurring before 19 March 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (63.64% * 8.34%) + (27.27% * 0.92%) - (9.09% * 7.09%) = 4.91%.
Wins: 7 Breakevens: 3 Losses: 1

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

 

50 day low Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each 50 day low entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date and Score Buy Signal Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
20 March 2026   45     50 Day Low $ 82.54 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
03 April 2025  bubble_chart   35     50 Day Low $ 65.76 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
19 December 2024  bubble_chart   35     50 Day Low $ 66.60 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
23 October 2024  bubble_chart   45     50 Day Low $ 66.64 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
02 August 2024  bubble_chart   45     50 Day Low $ 64.88 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
21 June 2024  bubble_chart   45     50 Day Low $ 66.06 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
25 April 2024  bubble_chart   45     50 Day Low $ 66.28 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
03 October 2023   45     50 Day Low $ 58.76 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
15 August 2023   45     50 Day Low $ 60.32 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
12 October 2022   30   smart_toy0.978   mode_heat 50 Day Low $ 48.76 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
06 September 2022   30     50 Day Low $ 51.74 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
13 June 2022   30     50 Day Low $ 53.56 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
12 April 2022   30     50 Day Low $ 58.00 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
24 February 2022   60   smart_toy0.954   mode_heat 50 Day Low $ 61.65 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
18 January 2022       50 Day Low $ 66.24 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
26 November 2021       50 Day Low $ 67.28 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
20 August 2021       50 Day Low $ 66.45 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt disabled_by_default
12 May 2021       50 Day Low $ 65.97 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt disabled_by_default

 

The data for iShares MCSI Japan (exchange: ARCX symbol: EWJ) was last updated 27 Mar 2026 13:40. Data for this ETF is available from 04 Jan 2021 - 26 Mar 2026.