VanEck Oil Refiners (CRAK) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results

Signal:                
                   
              [ What are these? | Switch to CRAK's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target:               -or-  
Show signal scores:       Scores:           Market sector score:       [ What are these scores? ]
Expectancy: 7.20%.   Win rate: 88.89%.   Sharpe Ratio: 1.141.   Maximum drawdown: -31.30% on 07 April 2025.
Mean CAGR: 134.86%. Time in market: 812 days.   Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $1734.28 on 09 September 2025.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)


*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for Oil Refiners

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 9 signal(s) occurring before 08 July 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (88.89% * 8.03%) + (11.11% * 0.54%) - (0% * 0%) = 7.20%.
Wins: 8 Breakevens: 1 Losses: 0

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

 

50 day low Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each 50 day low entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date, Score and Sector Score Buy Signal Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
17 June 2026   smart_toyLOW (30)    local_gas_stationLOW   50 Day Low $ 46.55 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
03 April 2025   smart_toyLOW (41)    local_gas_stationHIGH   50 Day Low $ 27.48 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
12 December 2024   smart_toyLOW (42)    local_gas_stationLOW   50 Day Low $ 30.64 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
15 October 2024   smart_toyLOW (31)     50 Day Low $ 33.00 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
12 September 2024   smart_toyLOW (36)     50 Day Low $ 33.16 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
19 July 2024   smart_toyLOW (11)     50 Day Low $ 34.94 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
29 May 2024   smart_toyLOW (29)     50 Day Low $ 36.02 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
04 October 2023   smart_toyLOW (15)     50 Day Low $ 32.61 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
16 May 2023   smart_toyLOW (65)     50 Day Low $ 29.64 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
15 March 2023   smart_toyLOW (67)     50 Day Low $ 29.68 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
23 September 2022   smart_toyMEDIUM (82)     50 Day Low $ 27.01 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
30 June 2022   smart_toyMEDIUM (83)     sirenFIRE SALE 50 Day Low $ 29.64 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
26 November 2021   smart_toyLOW (46)     50 Day Low $ 26.87 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
19 August 2021   smart_toyLOW (24)     50 Day Low $ 26.13 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
15 July 2021   smart_toyLOW (13)     50 Day Low $ 28.03 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box

 

The data for VanEck Oil Refiners (exchange: ARCX symbol: CRAK) was last updated 16 Jul 2026 03:30. Data for this ETF is available from 04 Jan 2021 - 15 Jul 2026.