United States Copper Index Fund (CPER) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results

Signal:                
                   
              [ What are these? | Switch to CPER's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target:               -or-  
Show signal scores:       Scores:           Market sector score:       [ What are these scores? ]
Expectancy: 5.70%.   Win rate: 66.67%.   Sharpe Ratio: -0.228.   Maximum drawdown: -24.72% on 23 March 2020.
Mean CAGR: 82.83%. Time in market: 1189 days.   Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $1274.24 on 31 July 2023.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)


*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for Copper

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 6 signal(s) occurring before 03 August 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (66.67% * 8.22%) + (33.33% * 0.66%) - (0% * 0%) = 5.70%.
Wins: 4 Breakevens: 2 Losses: 0

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

52 Week Low Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each 52 week low entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Date Buy Signal Price Scores Performance (mouseover for details)
Signal Sector WR Speed Risk Overall 5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
17 June 2022 52 Week Low $ 24.52 98 84 82 62 73 95 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
09 March 2020 52 Week Low $ 15.55 69 35 100 79 94 61 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
05 August 2019 52 Week Low $ 15.96 33 35 100 82 92 41 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
02 January 2019 52 Week Low $ 16.27 89 86 100 88 97 93 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
04 September 2018 52 Week Low $ 16.32 72 14 100 93 97 48 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
17 July 2018 52 Week Low $ 17.38 22 12 100 90 93 24 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box

 

The data for United States Copper Index Fund (exchange: ARCX symbol: CPER) was last updated 13 Aug 2026 07:17. Data for this ETF is available from 04 Jan 2016 - 10 Aug 2026.