Caterpillar Inc (CAT) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results military_tech

Signal: 52 Week Low 26 Week Low 50 day low Double Seven Rate of Change Super Oversold Mega Dump MegaDump Lite
Double Bottom Williams %R (Weekly) Large Gap Down Super Oversold from 52W/RoC/MD/DB Best Buy Signals [ What are these? | Switch to CAT's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target: 5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20% -or- Use trailing stop losses.
Show signal scores: Off Classic Original AI Model ML4 AI Model Threshold: All Low High Very High [ What are these scores? ]
Expectancy: 8.50%. Win rate: 89.47%. Sharpe Ratio: -1.047. Maximum drawdown: -37.13% on 16 March 2020.
Mean CAGR: 121.31%. Time in market: 2165 days. Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $2707.92 on 15 May 2024.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)

*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for Caterpillar Inc

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 19 signal(s) occurring before 29 May 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (89.47% * 9.38%) + (10.53% * 1.03%) - (0% * 0%) = 8.50%.
Wins: 17 Breakevens: 2 Losses: 0

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

Caterpillar Inc Analysis

Market sector: Industrials.

External links: Seeking Alpha Research, Zacks Research.

These links may show useful information about why a stock's price has fallen significantly.

Large Gap Down Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each large gap down entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key: disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date and Score	Buy Signal	Price	Performance (mouseover for details)
			5%	6%	7.5%	10%	20%
05 June 2026 bubble_chart MEDIUM smart_toy0.915 factory0.956	Gap Down	$ 917.10	schedule	schedule	schedule	schedule	schedule
03 March 2026 bubble_chart MEDIUM smart_toy0.806 factory0.431	Gap Down	$ 725.22	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
12 December 2025 bubble_chart MEDIUM smart_toy0.886 factory0.689	Gap Down	$ 611.94	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
04 November 2025 bubble_chart MEDIUM smart_toy0.908 factory0.605	Gap Down	$ 556.29	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
04 April 2025 bubble_chart MEDIUM smart_toy0.995 factory0.899 FIRE SALE	Gap Down	$ 286.54	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
01 August 2024 bubble_chart MEDIUM smart_toy0.714 factory0.688	Gap Down	$ 338.91	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
25 April 2024 bubble_chart MEDIUM smart_toy0.805 factory0.622	Gap Down	$ 334.22	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt
18 October 2023 bubble_chart HIGH smart_toy0.983 factory0.858	Gap Down	$ 261.30	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
13 September 2022 bubble_chart MEDIUM smart_toy0.932 factory0.927	Gap Down	$ 186.08	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
02 August 2022 bubble_chart MEDIUM smart_toy0.884 factory0.926	Gap Down	$ 185.76	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
22 April 2022 bubble_chart MEDIUM smart_toy0.785 factory0.724	Gap Down	$ 222.35	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box
26 November 2021 bubble_chart MEDIUM smart_toy0.717 factory0.674	Gap Down	$ 199.86	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box
20 September 2021 bubble_chart MEDIUM smart_toy0.816 factory0.783	Gap Down	$ 191.94	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt
11 June 2020 MEDIUM smart_toy0.834 factory0.905	Gap Down	$ 123.98	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
13 April 2020 MEDIUM smart_toy0.915 factory0.864	Gap Down	$ 116.02	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
05 March 2020 HIGH smart_toy0.9 factory0.827 FIRE SALE	Gap Down	$ 121.48	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt
24 July 2019 MEDIUM smart_toy0.744 factory0.645	Gap Down	$ 128.38	select_check_box	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box
03 January 2019 bubble_chart HIGH smart_toy0.997 factory0.942	Gap Down	$ 118.17	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt
24 April 2018 bubble_chart HIGH smart_toy0.719 factory0.768	Gap Down	$ 143.80	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box
22 March 2018 bubble_chart MEDIUM smart_toy0.917 factory0.813	Gap Down	$ 140.99	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box
02 March 2017 MEDIUM smart_toy0.648 factory0.497	Gap Down	$ 88.39	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt
24 June 2016 LOW smart_toy0.683 factory0.695	Gap Down	$ 66.15	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt
08 March 2016 LOW smart_toy0.99 factory0.833	Gap Down	$ 64.31	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt
25 January 2016 LOW smart_toy0.999 factory0.915	Gap Down	$ 51.65	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
17 December 2015 LOW smart_toy0.802 factory0.591	Gap Down	$ 57.63	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt

The data for Caterpillar Inc (exchange: XNYS symbol: CAT) was last updated 06 Jun 2026 18:11. Data for this stock is available from 01 Dec 2015 - 05 Jun 2026.