Ulta Beauty Inc (ULTA) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results

Signal:                  
                [ What are these? | Switch to ULTA's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target:               -or-  
Show signal scores:           Threshold:         [ What are these scores? ]
Expectancy: 8.56%.   Win rate: 80.95%.   Sharpe Ratio: -1.589.   Maximum drawdown: -58.03% on 18 March 2020.
Mean CAGR: 127.11%. Time in market: 2879 days.   Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $3489.57 on 30 May 2025.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)


*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for Ulta Beauty

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 21 signal(s) occurring before 22 May 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (80.95% * 10.10%) + (19.05% * 2.02%) - (0% * 0%) = 8.56%.
Wins: 17 Breakevens: 4 Losses: 0

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

Ulta Beauty Analysis

Market sector: Consumer Discretionary.

External links: Seeking Alpha Research, Zacks Research.

These links may show useful information about why a stock's price has fallen significantly.

 

50 day low Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each 50 day low entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date and Score Buy Signal Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
12 May 2026   LOW   smart_toy0.698  factory0.546   50 Day Low $ 507.11 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
13 March 2026   LOW   smart_toy0.902  factory0.759   50 Day Low $ 551.00 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
30 October 2025   LOW   smart_toy0.765  factory0.552   50 Day Low $ 507.86 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
13 February 2025   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.769  factory0.498   50 Day Low $ 367.72 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
18 November 2024   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.868  factory0.61   50 Day Low $ 357.10 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
24 July 2024   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.47  factory0.545   50 Day Low $ 374.56 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
07 May 2024   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.806  factory0.324   50 Day Low $ 393.58 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
03 April 2024   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.746  factory0.302   50 Day Low $ 454.78 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
26 September 2023   LOW   smart_toy0.896  factory0.72   50 Day Low $ 392.64 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
24 August 2023   LOW   smart_toy0.781  factory0.669   50 Day Low $ 429.28 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
10 May 2023   LOW   smart_toy0.738  factory0.593   50 Day Low $ 507.18 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default
21 October 2022   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.969  factory0.894   FIRE SALE 50 Day Low $ 382.72 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
19 May 2022   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.988  factory0.904   FIRE SALE 50 Day Low $ 350.12 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
20 January 2022   LOW   smart_toy0.901  factory0.494   50 Day Low $ 366.30 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
28 October 2020   LOW   smart_toy0.722  factory0.731   50 Day Low $ 205.69 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
25 June 2020   LOW   smart_toy0.864  factory0.575   50 Day Low $ 196.26 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
09 March 2020   HIGH   smart_toy0.985  factory0.803   FIRE SALE 50 Day Low $ 236.57 select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
14 August 2019   LOW   smart_toy0.75  factory0.849   50 Day Low $ 325.53 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
29 May 2019   LOW   smart_toy0.635  factory0.893   50 Day Low $ 327.22 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
07 December 2018   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.632  factory0.906   50 Day Low $ 262.96 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
02 July 2018   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.705  factory0.838   50 Day Low $ 231.83 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
13 February 2018   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.843  factory0.543   50 Day Low $ 207.62 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
12 October 2017   LOW   smart_toy0.778  factory0.668   50 Day Low $ 195.84 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
15 August 2017   LOW   smart_toy0.788  factory0.494   50 Day Low $ 243.24 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
06 July 2017   LOW   smart_toy0.682  factory0.723   50 Day Low $ 274.88 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
04 November 2016   LOW   smart_toy0.782  factory0.771   50 Day Low $ 229.06 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
12 September 2016   LOW   smart_toy0.819  factory0.637   50 Day Low $ 238.88 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt

 

The data for Ulta Beauty Inc (exchange: XNAS symbol: ULTA) was last updated 30 May 2026 15:00. Data for this stock is available from 01 Apr 2016 - 29 May 2026.