Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results 🚜

Signal:                  
                [ What are these? | Switch to TSCO's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target:               -or-  
Show signal scores:           Threshold:         [ What are these scores? ]
Expectancy: 7.02%.   Win rate: 91.30%.   Sharpe Ratio: -3.925.   Maximum drawdown: -43.43% on 12 July 2017.
Mean CAGR: 78.63%. Time in market: 3891 days.   Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $1977.55 on 23 February 2024.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)


*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for Tractor Supply Company

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 23 signal(s) occurring before 22 May 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (91.30% * 8.07%) + (4.35% * 0.16%) - (4.35% * 8.07%) = 7.02%.
Wins: 21 Breakevens: 1 Losses: 1

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

Tractor Supply Company Analysis

Market sector: Industrials.

External links: Seeking Alpha Research, Zacks Research.

These links may show useful information about why a stock's price has fallen significantly.

 

50 day low Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each 50 day low entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date and Score Buy Signal Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
21 April 2026  bubble_chart   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.598  factory0.393   50 Day Low $ 41.08 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
11 March 2026  bubble_chart   LOW   smart_toy0.67  factory0.434   50 Day Low $ 49.86 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
11 December 2025  bubble_chart   LOW   smart_toy0.55  factory0.752   50 Day Low $ 52.28 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt schedule schedule schedule
04 November 2025  bubble_chart   LOW   smart_toy0.369  factory0.72   50 Day Low $ 52.77 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt schedule schedule schedule
01 October 2025  bubble_chart   LOW   smart_toy0.661  factory0.625   50 Day Low $ 56.42 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
02 June 2025  bubble_chart   LOW   smart_toy0.758  factory0.785   50 Day Low $ 47.95 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
24 April 2025  bubble_chart   LOW   smart_toy0.985  factory0.835   FIRE SALE 50 Day Low $ 48.55 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
13 March 2025  bubble_chart   LOW   smart_toy0.894  factory0.817   FIRE SALE 50 Day Low $ 51.94 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
31 December 2024  bubble_chart   LOW   smart_toy0.513  factory0.804   50 Day Low $ 52.83 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box
09 July 2024  bubble_chart   LOW   smart_toy0.924  factory0.488   50 Day Low $ 51.74 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
23 October 2023  bubble_chart   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.817  factory0.902   FIRE SALE 50 Day Low $ 39.11 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
19 September 2023  bubble_chart   LOW   smart_toy0.881  factory0.709   50 Day Low $ 41.62 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
16 May 2023  bubble_chart   LOW   smart_toy0.922  factory0.776   50 Day Low $ 44.77 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
26 September 2022  bubble_chart   LOW   smart_toy0.995  factory0.931   FIRE SALE 50 Day Low $ 37.17 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
10 May 2022  bubble_chart   LOW   smart_toy0.925  factory0.884   FIRE SALE 50 Day Low $ 39.82 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
23 February 2022  bubble_chart   LOW   smart_toy0.86  factory0.684   FIRE SALE 50 Day Low $ 39.37 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
20 January 2022  bubble_chart   LOW   smart_toy0.9  factory0.528   50 Day Low $ 43.28 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box
17 June 2021  bubble_chart   LOW   smart_toy0.901  factory0.614   50 Day Low $ 35.30 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
27 October 2020  bubble_chart   LOW   smart_toy0.918  factory0.653   50 Day Low $ 26.99 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
28 February 2020   LOW   smart_toy0.751  factory0.818   50 Day Low $ 17.62 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
19 December 2019   LOW   smart_toy0.916  factory0.604   50 Day Low $ 18.31 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
17 September 2019   LOW   smart_toy0.814  factory0.56   50 Day Low $ 18.98 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
14 August 2019   LOW   smart_toy0.814  factory0.82   50 Day Low $ 19.93 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
20 December 2018   LOW   smart_toy0.964  factory0.927   FIRE SALE 50 Day Low $ 16.50 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
28 March 2018   LOW   smart_toy0.389  factory0.584   50 Day Low $ 11.58 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
22 February 2018   LOW   smart_toy0.758  factory0.438   50 Day Low $ 12.76 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
21 June 2017   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.806  factory0.637   50 Day Low $ 10.18 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
27 April 2017   LOW   smart_toy0.611  factory0.516   50 Day Low $ 12.03 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
21 March 2017   LOW   smart_toy0.627  factory0.357   50 Day Low $ 13.24 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
16 February 2017   LOW   smart_toy0.816  factory0.531   50 Day Low $ 13.63 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
03 October 2016   LOW   smart_toy0.817  factory0.707   50 Day Low $ 12.67 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
24 August 2016   LOW   smart_toy0.781  factory0.458   50 Day Low $ 16.03 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
21 July 2016   LOW   smart_toy0.687  factory0.361   50 Day Low $ 16.95 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default

 

The data for Tractor Supply Company (exchange: XNAS symbol: TSCO) was last updated 30 May 2026 15:00. Data for this stock is available from 02 May 2016 - 29 May 2026.