Ollies Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc (OLLI) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results

Buy indicator:                  
              [ What are these indicators? | Switch to OLLI's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target:               -or-  

Expectancy: 10.06%.   Win rate: 100%.   Sharpe Ratio: 3.593.   Maximum drawdown: -33.34% on 19 March 2020.
Mean CAGR: 177.47%. Time in market: 494 days.   Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $1711.33 on 09 June 2022.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)


*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for Ollies Bargain Outlet

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 9 signal(s) occurring before 19 May 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (100% * 10.06%) + (0% * 0%) - (0% * 0%) = 10.06%.
Wins: 9 Breakevens: 0 Losses: 0

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

Ollies Bargain Outlet Analysis

Market sector: Consumer Discretionary.

External links: Seeking Alpha Research, Zacks Research.

These links may show useful information about why a stock's price has fallen significantly.

 

52 week low Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each 52 week low entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date and Score Buy Signal Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
22 April 2026   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.51   52 Week Low $ 88.82 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
20 March 2026   LOW   smart_toy0.591   52 Week Low $ 100.12 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
17 February 2022  bubble_chart   HIGH   smart_toy0.894   52 Week Low $ 42.01 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
14 January 2022  bubble_chart   HIGH   smart_toy0.975   52 Week Low $ 46.24 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
03 December 2021  bubble_chart   HIGH   smart_toy0.817   52 Week Low $ 50.38 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
30 September 2021  bubble_chart   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.808   52 Week Low $ 62.36 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
27 August 2021  bubble_chart   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.832   52 Week Low $ 69.08 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box
21 May 2021  bubble_chart   LOW   smart_toy0.706   52 Week Low $ 77.37 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
05 March 2020  bubble_chart   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.487   FIRE SALE 52 Week Low $ 47.42 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
15 January 2020  bubble_chart   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.985   52 Week Low $ 53.93 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
29 August 2019  bubble_chart   HIGH   smart_toy0.787   52 Week Low $ 57.13 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt

 

The data for Ollies Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc (exchange: XNAS symbol: OLLI) was last updated 27 May 2026 07:48. Data for this stock is available from 01 Jun 2016 - 26 May 2026.