J.M. Smucker Company (SJM) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results military_tech

Buy indicator:                  
              [ What are these indicators? | Switch to SJM's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target:               -or-  

Expectancy: 3.97%.   Win rate: 77.78%.   Sharpe Ratio: -3.765.   Maximum drawdown: -32.49% on 16 January 2025.
Mean CAGR: 66.78%. Time in market: 7589 days.   Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $1025.61 on 06 March 2026.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)


*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for J.M. Smucker

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 36 signal(s) occurring before 08 May 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (77.78% * 8.50%) + (8.33% * 0.54%) - (13.89% * 19.33%) = 3.97%.
Wins: 28 Breakevens: 3 Losses: 5

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

J.M. Smucker Analysis

Market sector: Consumer Staples.

External links: Seeking Alpha Research, Zacks Research.

These links may show useful information about why a stock's price has fallen significantly.

 

MegaDump Lite Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each MegaDump Lite entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date and Score Buy Signal Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
04 May 2026   LOW   smart_toy0.947   Mega Dump Lite $ 96.63 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
31 March 2026   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.972   Mega Dump Lite $ 96.08 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
05 January 2026   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.975   Mega Dump Lite $ 95.48 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
01 December 2025   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.555   Mega Dump Lite $ 103.44 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt schedule
06 October 2025   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.862   Mega Dump Lite $ 107.50 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box schedule schedule
02 September 2025   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.892   Mega Dump Lite $ 109.90 select_check_box select_check_box schedule schedule schedule
18 July 2025   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.716   Mega Dump Lite $ 107.25 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box schedule schedule
16 June 2025   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.949   Mega Dump Lite $ 95.78 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
27 January 2025   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.981   Mega Dump Lite $ 106.44 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
24 December 2024   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.812   Mega Dump Lite $ 111.24 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
21 May 2024   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.923   Mega Dump Lite $ 113.14 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box
18 April 2024   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.926   Mega Dump Lite $ 110.77 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
05 March 2024   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.843   Mega Dump Lite $ 121.78 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
24 October 2023   HIGH   smart_toy0.95   FIRE SALE Mega Dump Lite $ 111.30 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
20 September 2023   HIGH   smart_toy0.883   Mega Dump Lite $ 126.90 select_check_box disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
01 June 2023   HIGH   smart_toy0.945   Mega Dump Lite $ 143.53 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
25 January 2023   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.7   Mega Dump Lite $ 150.00 select_check_box electric_bolt disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
28 June 2022   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.982   Mega Dump Lite $ 128.11 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
25 May 2022   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.99   Mega Dump Lite $ 126.31 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
04 March 2022   HIGH   smart_toy0.955   Mega Dump Lite $ 132.70 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
05 October 2021   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.827   Mega Dump Lite $ 121.12 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
01 September 2021   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.845   Mega Dump Lite $ 123.18 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
28 June 2021   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.923   Mega Dump Lite $ 130.27 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
12 March 2021   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.688   Mega Dump Lite $ 121.20 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
08 February 2021   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.876   Mega Dump Lite $ 115.04 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
24 September 2020   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.813   Mega Dump Lite $ 109.71 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
30 June 2020   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.813   Mega Dump Lite $ 105.78 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
28 May 2020   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.868   Mega Dump Lite $ 111.17 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box
17 April 2020   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.81   Mega Dump Lite $ 121.03 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
17 March 2020   HIGH   smart_toy0.932   FIRE SALE Mega Dump Lite $ 112.56 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box
07 October 2019   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.907   Mega Dump Lite $ 104.93 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
03 September 2019   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.88   Mega Dump Lite $ 103.36 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
07 January 2019   HIGH   smart_toy0.996   FIRE SALE Mega Dump Lite $ 91.86 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
04 December 2018   HIGH   smart_toy0.788   Mega Dump Lite $ 98.24 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
02 November 2018   HIGH   smart_toy0.928   FIRE SALE Mega Dump Lite $ 102.60 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
01 October 2018   HIGH   smart_toy0.955   Mega Dump Lite $ 97.30 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
28 August 2018   HIGH   smart_toy0.937   Mega Dump Lite $ 99.33 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
18 June 2018   HIGH   smart_toy0.973   FIRE SALE Mega Dump Lite $ 98.51 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
15 May 2018   HIGH   smart_toy0.86   Mega Dump Lite $ 104.27 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
13 April 2018   HIGH   smart_toy0.729   Mega Dump Lite $ 114.96 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
13 March 2018   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.757   Mega Dump Lite $ 122.52 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
08 February 2018   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.95   Mega Dump Lite $ 111.03 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
09 October 2017   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.923   Mega Dump Lite $ 95.38 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
05 September 2017   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.958   Mega Dump Lite $ 97.06 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
13 July 2017   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.939   Mega Dump Lite $ 105.90 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
04 October 2016   LOW   smart_toy0.846   Mega Dump Lite $ 120.58 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
31 August 2016   LOW   smart_toy0.79   Mega Dump Lite $ 126.57 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default

 

The data for J.M. Smucker Company (exchange: XNYS symbol: SJM) was last updated 15 May 2026 23:40. Data for this stock is available from 01 Dec 2015 - 15 May 2026.