Shake Shack Inc (SHAK) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results

Buy indicator:                  
              [ What are these indicators? | Switch to SHAK's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target:               -or-  

Expectancy: 8.05%.   Win rate: 92.31%.   Sharpe Ratio: -0.788.   Maximum drawdown: -55.46% on 16 June 2022.
Mean CAGR: 180.35%. Time in market: 2384 days.   Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $1895.84 on 14 July 2022.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)


*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for Shake Shack

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 26 signal(s) occurring before 06 May 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (92.31% * 9.56%) + (3.85% * 0.33%) - (3.85% * 20.45%) = 8.05%.
Wins: 24 Breakevens: 1 Losses: 1

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

Shake Shack Analysis

Market sector: Consumer Discretionary.

External links: Seeking Alpha Research, Zacks Research.

These links may show useful information about why a stock's price has fallen significantly.

 

Super Oversold Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each Super Oversold entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date and Score Buy Signal Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
13 May 2026   HIGH   smart_toy0.909   Super Oversold (26) $ 64.67 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
05 December 2025   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.769   Super Oversold (26) $ 79.16 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
01 October 2025   LOW   smart_toy0.408   Super Oversold (MD) $ 92.37 select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box schedule
08 September 2025   LOW   smart_toy0.366   Super Oversold (MD) $ 98.79 select_check_box schedule schedule schedule schedule
04 April 2025  bubble_chart   HIGH     FIRE SALE Super Oversold (RoC) $ 79.18 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
04 April 2025  bubble_chart   HIGH   smart_toy0.971   Super Oversold (MD) $ 79.18 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
13 March 2025  bubble_chart   HIGH   smart_toy0.828   FIRE SALE Super Oversold (26) $ 85.12 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
14 June 2022  bubble_chart   HIGH   smart_toy0.953   FIRE SALE Super Oversold (26) $ 39.43 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
24 May 2022  bubble_chart   HIGH   smart_toy0.983   FIRE SALE Super Oversold (RoC) $ 42.28 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
19 May 2022  bubble_chart   HIGH   smart_toy0.992   Super Oversold (MD) $ 42.46 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
11 May 2022  bubble_chart   HIGH   smart_toy0.987   FIRE SALE Super Oversold (52) $ 45.58 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
11 May 2022  bubble_chart   HIGH   smart_toy0.987   FIRE SALE Super Oversold (DB) $ 45.58 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
06 May 2022  bubble_chart   MEDIUM     FIRE SALE Super Oversold (26) $ 54.88 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
06 May 2022  bubble_chart   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.713   FIRE SALE Super Oversold (52) $ 54.88 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
27 April 2022  bubble_chart   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.553   Super Oversold (MD) $ 59.58 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
24 January 2022  bubble_chart   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.984   FIRE SALE Super Oversold (26) $ 63.48 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
10 January 2022  bubble_chart   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.988   Super Oversold (GD) $ 68.68 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
22 October 2021  bubble_chart   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.85   Super Oversold (26) $ 71.61 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
17 August 2021  bubble_chart   LOW   smart_toy0.772   Super Oversold (MD) $ 86.52 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
10 May 2021  bubble_chart   LOW   smart_toy0.988   Super Oversold (GD) $ 89.68 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt disabled_by_default
07 May 2021  bubble_chart   LOW   smart_toy0.976   Super Oversold (GD) $ 91.73 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt disabled_by_default
02 April 2020  bubble_chart   HIGH   smart_toy0.944   Super Oversold (MD) $ 32.48 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
12 March 2020  bubble_chart   HIGH   smart_toy0.946   FIRE SALE Super Oversold (52) $ 37.16 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
09 March 2020  bubble_chart   HIGH   smart_toy0.929   FIRE SALE Super Oversold (GD) $ 47.41 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
06 March 2020  bubble_chart   HIGH   smart_toy0.546   FIRE SALE Super Oversold (26) $ 51.36 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
05 March 2020  bubble_chart   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.558   FIRE SALE Super Oversold (26) $ 53.68 select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
09 December 2019  bubble_chart   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.38   Super Oversold (RoC) $ 58.08 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
05 November 2019  bubble_chart   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.976   Super Oversold (GD) $ 67.99 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
24 December 2018  bubble_chart   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.856   FIRE SALE Super Oversold (26) $ 41.48 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
20 December 2018  bubble_chart   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.933   FIRE SALE Super Oversold (26) $ 44.34 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
18 December 2018  bubble_chart   HIGH   smart_toy0.873   FIRE SALE Super Oversold (DB) $ 45.74 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
12 December 2018  bubble_chart   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.831   Super Oversold (MD) $ 45.88 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
05 November 2018  bubble_chart   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.904   FIRE SALE Super Oversold (GD) $ 47.22 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt

 

The data for Shake Shack Inc (exchange: XNYS symbol: SHAK) was last updated 14 May 2026 00:22. Data for this stock is available from 01 Jun 2016 - 13 May 2026.