Paychex Inc (PAYX) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results military_tech

Buy indicator:                  
              [ What are these indicators? | Switch to PAYX's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target:               -or-  

Expectancy: 5.76%.   Win rate: 72.73%.   Sharpe Ratio: -1.521.   Maximum drawdown: -40.35% on 23 March 2020.
Mean CAGR: 62.57%. Time in market: 2659 days.   Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $1432.73 on 26 August 2024.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)


*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for Paychex

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 11 signal(s) occurring before 08 May 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (72.73% * 8.41%) + (9.09% * 7.25%) - (18.18% * 5.56%) = 5.76%.
Wins: 8 Breakevens: 1 Losses: 2

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

Paychex Analysis

Market sector: Financials.

External links: Seeking Alpha Research, Zacks Research.

These links may show useful information about why a stock's price has fallen significantly.

 

Large Gap Down Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each large gap down entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date and Score Buy Signal Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
13 May 2026   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.905   Gap Down $ 90.70 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
03 February 2026   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.973   Gap Down $ 98.78 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
29 October 2025   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.943   Gap Down $ 119.88 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
25 June 2025   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.935   Gap Down $ 141.60 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
11 March 2025   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.956   Gap Down $ 150.30 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt schedule schedule schedule
21 December 2023   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.689   Gap Down $ 120.58 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
25 October 2023   HIGH   smart_toy0.92   Gap Down $ 113.18 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
15 December 2022   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.706   Gap Down $ 119.15 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
26 August 2022   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.854   Gap Down $ 131.56 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
22 April 2022   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.822   Gap Down $ 134.54 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
26 January 2022   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.906   Gap Down $ 116.59 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
06 April 2021   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.69   Gap Down $ 95.22 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
01 April 2020   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.993   FIRE SALE Gap Down $ 58.48 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
25 February 2020   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.758   Gap Down $ 84.72 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
10 October 2018   HIGH   smart_toy0.893   Gap Down $ 67.16 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
07 January 2016   LOW   smart_toy0.965   Gap Down $ 41.90 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt

 

The data for Paychex Inc (exchange: XNAS symbol: PAYX) was last updated 15 May 2026 23:40. Data for this stock is available from 01 Dec 2015 - 15 May 2026.