MGE Energy Inc (MGEE) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results

Buy indicator:                  
              [ What are these indicators? | Switch to MGEE's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target:               -or-  

Expectancy: 7.51%.   Win rate: 90.0%.   Sharpe Ratio: 0.634.   Maximum drawdown: -24.58% on 25 March 2020.
Mean CAGR: 98.01%. Time in market: 1103 days.   Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $1737.76 on 14 May 2024.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)


*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for MGE Energy

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 10 signal(s) occurring before 30 April 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (90.0% * 8.27%) + (10.0% * 0.71%) - (0% * 0%) = 7.51%.
Wins: 9 Breakevens: 1 Losses: 0

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

MGE Energy Analysis

Market sector: Utilities.

External links: Seeking Alpha Research, Zacks Research.

These links may show useful information about why a stock's price has fallen significantly.

 

Large Gap Down Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each large gap down entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date and Score Buy Signal Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
07 May 2026   LOW     smart_toy0.597 Gap Down $ 76.26 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
22 January 2025   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.896 Gap Down $ 90.64 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
05 August 2024   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.775 Gap Down $ 85.96 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
10 April 2024   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.494 Gap Down $ 76.08 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
21 March 2023   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.797 Gap Down $ 76.36 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
17 November 2021   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.778 Gap Down $ 75.52 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
28 October 2020   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.779 Gap Down $ 65.81 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
11 June 2020   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.841 Gap Down $ 64.29 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
06 May 2020   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.861 Gap Down $ 60.75 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
28 February 2020   HIGH     smart_toy0.875 Gap Down $ 72.50 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
24 December 2018   HIGH     smart_toy0.665 Gap Down $ 62.32 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
09 September 2016   LOW     smart_toy0.768 Gap Down $ 50.88 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
26 February 2016   LOW     smart_toy0.853 Gap Down $ 46.59 select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt

 

The data for MGE Energy Inc (exchange: XNAS symbol: MGEE) was last updated 08 May 2026 01:35. Data for this stock is available from 01 Feb 2016 - 07 May 2026.