Fastenal Company (FAST) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results

Buy indicator:                  
              [ What are these indicators? | Switch to FAST's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target:               -or-  

Expectancy: 8.76%.   Win rate: 100%.   Sharpe Ratio: 4.926.   Maximum drawdown: -10.52% on 24 February 2022.
Mean CAGR: 161.22%. Time in market: 371 days.   Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $1799.23 on 11 October 2024.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)


*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for Fastenal

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 7 signal(s) occurring before 08 May 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (100% * 8.76%) + (0% * 0%) - (0% * 0%) = 8.76%.
Wins: 7 Breakevens: 0 Losses: 0

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

Fastenal Analysis

Market sector: Industrials.

External links: Seeking Alpha Research, Zacks Research.

These links may show useful information about why a stock's price has fallen significantly.

 

Williams %R (Weekly) Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each Williams %R (Weekly) entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date and Score Buy Signal Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
15 May 2026   LOW   smart_toy0.63   Williams %R (Weekly) $ 43.50 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
14 November 2025   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.663   Williams %R (Weekly) $ 40.60 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
13 October 2025   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.844   Williams %R (Weekly) $ 42.96 select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt schedule
08 April 2025   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.959   FIRE SALE Williams %R (Weekly) $ 36.09 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
07 June 2024   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.732   Williams %R (Weekly) $ 32.01 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
06 May 2024   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.737   Williams %R (Weekly) $ 33.75 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
21 September 2023   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.694   Williams %R (Weekly) $ 26.74 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
30 September 2022   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.986   FIRE SALE Williams %R (Weekly) $ 23.12 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
13 June 2022   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.887   Williams %R (Weekly) $ 25.28 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
26 January 2022   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.791   Williams %R (Weekly) $ 27.80 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box
04 March 2021   LOW   smart_toy0.592   Williams %R (Weekly) $ 22.58 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
28 October 2020   LOW   smart_toy0.783   Williams %R (Weekly) $ 21.43 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt

 

The data for Fastenal Company (exchange: XNAS symbol: FAST) was last updated 15 May 2026 23:40. Data for this stock is available from 01 Apr 2020 - 15 May 2026.