iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond (EMB) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results

Buy indicator:          
              [ What are these indicators? | Switch to EMB's monthly backtests ]
Profit target:           [ A higher % profit will take longer and is less likely to be achieved ]
Expectancy: -4.18%. See below chart for calculations and explanation.   Win rate: 33.33%.   Maximum drawdown: 25.84% on 20 October 2022.
Mean CAGR: 28.94%. Time in market: 2822 days.   Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $885.50 on 23 November 2022
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)
*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

 

Expectancy Calculations for Emerging Market Bonds

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 6 signal(s) occurring before 20 December 2023 for a 5% profit target: (33.33% * 5.32%) + (16.67% * 1.26%) - (50.0% * 12.33%) = -4.18%.
Wins: 2 Breakevens: 1 Losses: 3

 

52 Week Low Backtest Summary

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each 52 week low entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 7.5% 10% 20%
26 September 2022 $80.46 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
12 July 2022 $83.54 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box
10 June 2022 $87.70 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
14 April 2022 $94.08 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
22 February 2022 $102.01 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
18 January 2022 $104.14 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default

 

The data for iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond (exchange: XNAS symbol: EMB) was last updated 27 Dec 2025 05:07. Data for this ETF is available from 04 Jan 2021 - 26 Dec 2025.