Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results

Buy indicator:                  
              [ What are these indicators? | Switch to DLTR's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target:               -or-  

Expectancy: 8.88%.   Win rate: 100%.   Sharpe Ratio: 6.109.   Maximum drawdown: -15.74% on 03 October 2023.
Mean CAGR: 210.91%. Time in market: 392 days.   Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $1486.75 on 20 December 2023.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)


*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for Dollar Tree

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 13 signal(s) occurring before 08 May 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (100% * 8.88%) + (0% * 0%) - (0% * 0%) = 8.88%.
Wins: 13 Breakevens: 0 Losses: 0

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

Dollar Tree Analysis

Market sector: Consumer Discretionary.

External links: Seeking Alpha Research, Zacks Research.

These links may show useful information about why a stock's price has fallen significantly.

 

Super Oversold Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each Super Oversold entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date and Score Buy Signal Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
13 May 2026   LOW   smart_toy0.846   Super Oversold (26) $ 87.84 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
11 November 2024   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.97   Super Oversold (MD) $ 61.20 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
11 November 2024   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.97   Super Oversold (RoC) $ 61.20 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
08 November 2024   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.973   Super Oversold (MD) $ 62.20 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
07 November 2024   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.973   Super Oversold (26) $ 63.03 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
05 September 2024   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.843   Super Oversold (52) $ 65.78 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
04 September 2024   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.887   Super Oversold (GD) $ 68.18 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
04 September 2024   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.887   Super Oversold (52) $ 68.18 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
03 September 2024   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.76   Super Oversold (52) $ 83.07 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
13 August 2024   LOW   smart_toy0.676   Super Oversold (26) $ 93.02 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box
05 August 2024   LOW   smart_toy0.731   Super Oversold (26) $ 97.72 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
02 August 2024   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.645   Super Oversold (52) $ 100.32 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
26 June 2024   LOW   smart_toy0.852   Super Oversold (26) $ 104.28 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
25 September 2023   HIGH   smart_toy0.894   FIRE SALE Super Oversold (52) $ 104.60 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
22 September 2023   HIGH   smart_toy0.952   FIRE SALE Super Oversold (RoC) $ 105.20 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
05 September 2023   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.94   Super Oversold (26) $ 117.50 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
25 August 2023   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.715   FIRE SALE Super Oversold (26) $ 123.52 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
20 September 2021   LOW   smart_toy0.616   Super Oversold (26) $ 88.10 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
31 August 2021   LOW   smart_toy0.752   Super Oversold (26) $ 90.62 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
30 August 2021   LOW   smart_toy0.752   Super Oversold (26) $ 90.96 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
18 March 2020   HIGH   smart_toy0.962   FIRE SALE Super Oversold (52) $ 69.33 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
16 March 2020   HIGH   smart_toy0.986   FIRE SALE Super Oversold (52) $ 67.80 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
06 March 2020   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.931   FIRE SALE Super Oversold (26) $ 78.12 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
05 March 2020   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.778   FIRE SALE Super Oversold (26) $ 78.31 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
04 March 2020   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.816   FIRE SALE Super Oversold (26) $ 80.06 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
22 June 2017   LOW   smart_toy0.792   Super Oversold (26) $ 67.89 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt

 

The data for Dollar Tree Inc (exchange: XNAS symbol: DLTR) was last updated 15 May 2026 23:40. Data for this stock is available from 01 Apr 2016 - 15 May 2026.