United States Copper Index Fund (CPER) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results

Buy indicator:            
            [ What are these indicators? | Switch to CPER's monthly backtests ]
Profit target:             [ A higher % profit will take longer and is less likely to be achieved ]
Expectancy: 5.61%.   Win rate: 90.91%.   Sharpe Ratio: -0.153.   Maximum drawdown: 25.93% on 23 March 2020.
Mean CAGR: 103.53%. Time in market: 1067 days.   Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $1709.31 on 09 January 2023.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)


*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for Copper

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 11 signal(s) occurring before 06 February 2024 for a 5% profit target: (90.91% * 6.06%) + (9.09% * 1.05%) - (0% * 0%) = 5.61%.
Wins: 10 Breakevens: 1 Losses: 0

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

 

Large Gap Down Backtest Summary

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each large gap down entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
30 January 2026 $36.76 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
29 December 2025 $34.25 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt schedule
10 October 2025 $31.09 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
03 April 2025 $30.28 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
06 November 2024 $26.74 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
22 May 2024 $29.94 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
23 June 2022 $22.98 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
21 October 2021 $27.98 select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
26 February 2021 $25.42 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
11 January 2021 $22.02 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
23 September 2020 $18.46 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
07 August 2020 $17.69 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
11 June 2020 $16.30 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
16 March 2020 $14.76 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
01 May 2019 $17.66 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
05 December 2017 $19.25 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
03 May 2017 $16.49 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt

 

The data for United States Copper Index Fund (exchange: ARCX symbol: CPER) was last updated 13 Feb 2026 06:56. Data for this ETF is available from 04 Jan 2016 - 12 Feb 2026.