United States Copper Index Fund (CPER) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results

Buy indicator:                
              [ What are these indicators? | Switch to CPER's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target:               -or-  

Expectancy: 5.24%.   Win rate: 81.82%.   Sharpe Ratio: -0.527.   Maximum drawdown: -30.74% on 14 July 2022.
Mean CAGR: 84.69%. Time in market: 1771 days.   Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $1413.32 on 23 October 2023.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)


*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for Copper

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 11 signal(s) occurring before 19 March 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (81.82% * 8.57%) + (9.09% * 1.05%) - (9.09% * 20.57%) = 5.24%.
Wins: 9 Breakevens: 1 Losses: 1

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

 

Large Gap Down Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each large gap down entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date and Score Buy Signal Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
18 March 2026   15     Gap Down $ 33.88 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
30 January 2026  bubble_chart   5     Gap Down $ 36.76 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
29 December 2025  bubble_chart   10     Gap Down $ 34.25 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt schedule
10 October 2025  bubble_chart   15     Gap Down $ 31.09 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
03 April 2025  bubble_chart   15     Gap Down $ 30.28 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
06 November 2024  bubble_chart   20     Gap Down $ 26.74 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
22 May 2024  bubble_chart   20     Gap Down $ 29.94 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
23 June 2022   10   smart_toy0.959   mode_heat Gap Down $ 22.98 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
21 October 2021   10     Gap Down $ 27.98 select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
26 February 2021   5     Gap Down $ 25.42 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
11 January 2021   5     Gap Down $ 22.02 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
23 September 2020   10     Gap Down $ 18.46 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
07 August 2020   10     Gap Down $ 17.69 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
11 June 2020   10     Gap Down $ 16.30 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
16 March 2020   85     mode_heat Gap Down $ 14.76 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
01 May 2019  bubble_chart   5     Gap Down $ 17.66 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
05 December 2017  bubble_chart   10     Gap Down $ 19.25 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
03 May 2017  bubble_chart   10     Gap Down $ 16.49 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt

 

The data for United States Copper Index Fund (exchange: ARCX symbol: CPER) was last updated 27 Mar 2026 13:36. Data for this ETF is available from 04 Jan 2016 - 26 Mar 2026.