Vail Resorts Inc (MTN) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results

Buy indicator:                  
              [ What are these indicators? | Switch to MTN's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target:               -or-  

Expectancy: -1.35%.   Win rate: 71.43%.   Sharpe Ratio: -0.681.   Maximum drawdown: -41.40% on 24 April 2026.
Mean CAGR: 96.2%. Time in market: 1757 days.   Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $754.69 on 20 April 2026.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)


*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for Vail Resorts

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 7 signal(s) occurring before 22 April 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (71.43% * 8.21%) + (0% * 0%) - (28.57% * 25.24%) = -1.35%.
Wins: 5 Breakevens: 0 Losses: 2

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

Vail Resorts Analysis

Market sector: Consumer Discretionary.

External links: Seeking Alpha Research, Zacks Research.

These links may show useful information about why a stock's price has fallen significantly.

 

52 Week Low Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each 52 week low entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date and Score Buy Signal Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
27 March 2026   LOW     smart_toy0.659 52 Week Low $ 128.09 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
02 February 2026   LOW     smart_toy0.855 52 Week Low $ 131.78 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt schedule schedule
30 December 2025   LOW     smart_toy0.814 52 Week Low $ 134.23 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt schedule schedule schedule
04 April 2025   LOW     smart_toy0.977 52 Week Low $ 148.12 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt schedule
11 February 2025   LOW     smart_toy0.808 52 Week Low $ 165.66 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
22 October 2024   LOW     smart_toy0.528 52 Week Low $ 169.15 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt schedule
07 August 2024   LOW     smart_toy0.846 52 Week Low $ 169.58 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt schedule
03 July 2024   LOW     smart_toy0.672 52 Week Low $ 173.40 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt schedule
29 May 2024   LOW     smart_toy0.691 52 Week Low $ 186.86 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
19 April 2024   LOW     smart_toy0.604 52 Week Low $ 206.07 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
03 October 2023   LOW     smart_toy0.619 52 Week Low $ 207.14 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt disabled_by_default
23 September 2022   LOW     smart_toy0.796 52 Week Low $ 208.18 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
16 June 2022   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.937 52 Week Low $ 223.06 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
18 February 2022   LOW     smart_toy0.831 52 Week Low $ 265.91 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
05 March 2020   LOW     smart_toy0.792 52 Week Low $ 195.31 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
11 January 2019   HIGH     smart_toy0.991 52 Week Low $ 178.50 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt

 

The data for Vail Resorts Inc (exchange: XNYS symbol: MTN) was last updated 30 Apr 2026 07:58. Data for this stock is available from 02 May 2016 - 29 Apr 2026.