International Business Machines Corp (IBM) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results military_tech

Buy indicator:                
              [ What are these indicators? | Switch to IBM's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target:               -or-  

Expectancy: 7.26%.   Win rate: 88.89%.   Sharpe Ratio: -2.256.   Maximum drawdown: -30.43% on 24 December 2018.
Mean CAGR: 81.5%. Time in market: 2995 days.   Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $1992.27 on 01 December 2023.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)


*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for International Business Machines

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 18 signal(s) occurring before 16 April 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (88.89% * 8.58%) + (5.56% * 0.52%) - (5.56% * 7.15%) = 7.26%.
Wins: 16 Breakevens: 1 Losses: 1

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

International Business Machines Analysis

Market sector: Technology.

External links: Seeking Alpha Research, Zacks Research.

These links may show useful information about why a stock's price has fallen significantly.

 

Large Gap Down Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each large gap down entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date and Score Buy Signal Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
23 April 2026   MEDIUM   Gap Down $ 231.68 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
23 February 2026   MEDIUM   Gap Down $ 238.86 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt schedule schedule
24 July 2025   MEDIUM   Gap Down $ 260.88 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
24 April 2025   MEDIUM   Gap Down $ 230.25 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
24 October 2024   MEDIUM   Gap Down $ 219.60 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
25 April 2024   MEDIUM   Gap Down $ 168.56 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
01 May 2023   MEDIUM   Gap Down $ 120.62 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
15 December 2022   MEDIUM   Gap Down $ 145.44 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
19 July 2022   MEDIUM   Gap Down $ 131.23 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
10 May 2022   MEDIUM   Gap Down $ 132.06 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box
21 October 2021   MEDIUM   Gap Down $ 130.92 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
02 July 2021   MEDIUM   Gap Down $ 143.46 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
22 January 2021   MEDIUM   Gap Down $ 119.66 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
20 October 2020   MEDIUM   Gap Down $ 118.58 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
01 April 2020   MEDIUM   FIRE SALE Gap Down $ 104.35 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
17 October 2019   MEDIUM   Gap Down $ 129.93 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
05 August 2019   MEDIUM   Gap Down $ 136.30 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
17 April 2019   MEDIUM   Gap Down $ 130.33 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
19 January 2018   MEDIUM   Gap Down $ 145.64 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
19 July 2017   MEDIUM   Gap Down $ 129.91 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box
19 April 2017   MEDIUM   Gap Down $ 139.85 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
24 June 2016   LOW   Gap Down $ 124.99 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
19 April 2016   LOW   Gap Down $ 121.27 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
20 January 2016   LOW   Gap Down $ 99.32 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt

 

The data for International Business Machines Corp (exchange: XNYS symbol: IBM) was last updated 24 Apr 2026 04:55. Data for this stock is available from 01 Dec 2015 - 23 Apr 2026.