Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results

Buy indicator: 52 Week Low 26 Week Low 50 day low Rate of Change Super Oversold Mega Dump MegaDump Lite Double Bottom
Williams %R (Weekly) Large Gap Down Super Oversold from 52W/RoC/MD Best Buy Signals [ What are these indicators? | Switch to DLTR's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target: 5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20% -or- Use trailing stop losses.
Show signal scores help.
Expectancy: 6.47%. Win rate: 84.62%. Sharpe Ratio: -1.681. Maximum drawdown: -52.47% on 11 November 2024.
Mean CAGR: 97.57%. Time in market: 3939 days. Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $2206.82 on 12 December 2025.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)

*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for Dollar Tree

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 26 signal(s) occurring before 22 April 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (84.62% * 9.18%) + (11.54% * 0.54%) - (3.85% * 35.48%) = 6.47%.
Wins: 22 Breakevens: 3 Losses: 1

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

Dollar Tree Analysis

Market sector: Consumer Discretionary.

External links: Seeking Alpha Research, Zacks Research.

These links may show useful information about why a stock's price has fallen significantly.

Large Gap Down Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each large gap down entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key: disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date and Score	Buy Signal	Price	Performance (mouseover for details)
			5%	6%	7.5%	10%	20%
07 April 2026 LOW smart_toy0.933	Gap Down	$ 108.10	schedule	schedule	schedule	schedule	schedule
22 December 2025 LOW smart_toy0.539	Gap Down	$ 125.55	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	schedule
01 October 2025 LOW smart_toy0.491	Gap Down	$ 92.04	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
08 April 2025 LOW smart_toy0.957	Gap Down	$ 72.35	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
03 March 2025 MEDIUM smart_toy0.691	Gap Down	$ 70.69	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
03 January 2025 MEDIUM smart_toy0.981	Gap Down	$ 75.18	select_check_box	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt
29 August 2024 LOW smart_toy0.773	Gap Down	$ 85.43	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box
13 March 2024 LOW smart_toy0.68	Gap Down	$ 128.78	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box
03 January 2024 LOW smart_toy0.66	Gap Down	$ 139.15	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default
16 November 2023 MEDIUM smart_toy0.901	Gap Down	$ 114.51	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
24 August 2023 MEDIUM FIRE SALE smart_toy0.591	Gap Down	$ 127.44	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	disabled_by_default
25 May 2023 MEDIUM smart_toy0.88	Gap Down	$ 135.70	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	disabled_by_default
13 September 2022 MEDIUM FIRE SALE smart_toy0.651	Gap Down	$ 140.34	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box
26 July 2022 MEDIUM smart_toy0.897	Gap Down	$ 160.25	select_check_box	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default
04 November 2021 LOW smart_toy0.766	Gap Down	$ 110.57	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
30 September 2021 LOW smart_toy0.831	Gap Down	$ 97.56	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
26 August 2021 LOW smart_toy0.807	Gap Down	$ 95.36	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
27 May 2021 LOW smart_toy0.666	Gap Down	$ 101.22	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt
27 January 2021 LOW smart_toy0.668	Gap Down	$ 103.27	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt
27 August 2020 LOW smart_toy0.701	Gap Down	$ 98.14	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt
06 July 2020 LOW smart_toy0.584	Gap Down	$ 92.38	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt
31 March 2020 LOW FIRE SALE smart_toy0.968	Gap Down	$ 75.17	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
26 November 2019 LOW smart_toy0.629	Gap Down	$ 95.51	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box
01 August 2019 LOW smart_toy0.549	Gap Down	$ 99.57	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box
13 May 2019 LOW smart_toy0.741	Gap Down	$ 100.98	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box
11 October 2018 MEDIUM smart_toy0.569	Gap Down	$ 81.66	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
30 August 2018 MEDIUM smart_toy0.721	Gap Down	$ 84.69	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt
31 May 2018 MEDIUM smart_toy0.629	Gap Down	$ 85.43	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt
07 March 2018 MEDIUM smart_toy0.933	Gap Down	$ 89.75	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box
02 February 2018 LOW smart_toy0.477	Gap Down	$ 110.68	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box
22 December 2016 LOW smart_toy0.983	Gap Down	$ 81.66	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box
04 October 2016 LOW smart_toy0.778	Gap Down	$ 77.14	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box
25 August 2016 LOW smart_toy0.674	Gap Down	$ 86.75	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box

The data for Dollar Tree Inc (exchange: XNAS symbol: DLTR) was last updated 30 Apr 2026 06:52. Data for this stock is available from 01 Apr 2016 - 29 Apr 2026.