Bitcoin (USD) (BTC) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results

Buy indicator:                
              [ What are these indicators? | Switch to BTC's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target:               -or-  

Expectancy: 6.42%.   Win rate: 87.65%.   Sharpe Ratio: -5.076.   Maximum drawdown: 86.51% on 19 November 2011.
Mean CAGR: 168.45%. Time in market: 9393 days.   Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $4665.73 on 12 January 2023.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)


*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for Bitcoin

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 81 signal(s) occurring before 11 March 2024 for a 5% profit target: (87.65% * 8.16%) + (9.88% * 1.83%) - (2.47% * 36.79%) = 6.42%.
Wins: 71 Breakevens: 8 Losses: 2

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

 

Super Oversold Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each Super Oversold entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date and Score Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
24 February 2026  bubble_chart   50 $ 64441.94 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt schedule
12 February 2026  bubble_chart   50 $ 66822.88 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt schedule
05 February 2026  bubble_chart   50 $ 68081.10 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt schedule schedule
01 February 2026  bubble_chart   15 $ 77631.82 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
15 November 2025  bubble_chart   20 $ 95331.26 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
07 April 2025  bubble_chart   85 $ 79059.74 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
21 November 2022  bubble_chart   15 $ 15996.84 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
10 November 2022  bubble_chart   30 $ 16984.58 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
06 September 2022  bubble_chart   60 $ 19365.90 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
18 June 2022  bubble_chart   70 $ 19513.16 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
14 June 2022  bubble_chart   60 $ 22245.09 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
13 June 2022  bubble_chart   55 $ 25183.69 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
13 June 2022  bubble_chart   55 $ 25183.69 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
13 June 2022  bubble_chart   55 $ 25183.69 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
13 June 2022  bubble_chart   25 $ 25183.69 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
10 May 2022  bubble_chart   70 $ 30559.22 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
10 May 2022  bubble_chart   40 $ 30559.22 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
09 May 2022  bubble_chart   70 $ 32625.52 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
22 January 2022  bubble_chart   15 $ 35514.48 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
21 January 2022  bubble_chart   45 $ 38655.70 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
20 July 2021  bubble_chart   10 $ 30235.25 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
13 July 2021  bubble_chart   40 $ 32725.40 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
22 June 2021  bubble_chart   40 $ 32004.62 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
17 May 2021  bubble_chart   40 $ 44379.26 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
14 May 2021  bubble_chart   40 $ 49729.50 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
16 March 2020  bubble_chart   90 $ 5152.28 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
13 March 2020  bubble_chart   90 $ 5736.66 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
12 March 2020  bubble_chart   100 $ 6890.20 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
23 November 2019  bubble_chart   10 $ 7303.10 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
24 October 2019  bubble_chart   45 $ 7455.28 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
27 July 2019  bubble_chart   40 $ 9671.94 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
13 January 2019  bubble_chart   70 $ 3604.16 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
06 December 2018  bubble_chart   70 $ 3689.66 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
06 December 2018  bubble_chart   70 $ 3689.66 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
21 November 2018  bubble_chart   60 $ 4427.67 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
21 November 2018  bubble_chart   60 $ 4427.67 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
20 November 2018  bubble_chart   60 $ 4597.78 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
16 November 2018  bubble_chart   30 $ 5536.18 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
15 November 2018  bubble_chart   60 $ 5600.76 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
23 June 2018  bubble_chart   10 $ 6126.76 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
13 June 2018  bubble_chart   40 $ 6418.30 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
13 June 2018  bubble_chart   10 $ 6418.30 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
12 May 2018  bubble_chart   40 $ 8413.18 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
08 March 2018  bubble_chart   50 $ 9625.27 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
31 January 2018  bubble_chart   40 $ 10191.44 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
16 January 2018  bubble_chart   40 $ 12458.54 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
30 December 2017  bubble_chart   40 $ 13461.83 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
16 July 2017  bubble_chart   40 $ 1944.58 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
25 March 2017  bubble_chart   40 $ 953.00 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
24 March 2017  bubble_chart   40 $ 987.36 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
11 January 2017  bubble_chart   40 $ 844.90 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
02 August 2016  bubble_chart   55 $ 560.22 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
19 August 2015  bubble_chart   40 $ 236.36 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
14 April 2015  bubble_chart   40 $ 220.79 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
13 January 2015  bubble_chart   40 $ 245.31 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
05 January 2015  bubble_chart   10 $ 269.78 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
04 January 2015  bubble_chart   10 $ 275.92 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
17 December 2014  bubble_chart   60 $ 325.12 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
04 October 2014  bubble_chart   60 $ 349.38 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
28 September 2014  bubble_chart   60 $ 389.05 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
20 September 2014  bubble_chart   30 $ 404.60 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
02 September 2014  bubble_chart   60 $ 478.06 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
30 March 2014  bubble_chart   60 $ 462.02 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
28 March 2014  bubble_chart   60 $ 471.53 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
24 February 2014  bubble_chart   60 $ 242.08 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
10 February 2014  bubble_chart   60 $ 621.10 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
08 February 2014  bubble_chart   60 $ 672.22 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
17 January 2014  bubble_chart   60 $ 903.82 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
16 December 2013  bubble_chart   60 $ 839.90 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
28 June 2013  bubble_chart   60 $ 98.20 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
15 June 2013  bubble_chart   60 $ 99.90 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
08 June 2013  bubble_chart   60 $ 109.44 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
25 October 2012  bubble_chart   60 $ 11.26 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
14 February 2012  bubble_chart   60 $ 4.86 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
15 November 2011  bubble_chart   30 $ 2.28 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
04 November 2011  bubble_chart   60 $ 3.13 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
08 October 2011  bubble_chart   30 $ 4.14 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
08 October 2011   60 $ 4.14 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
06 September 2011  bubble_chart   60 $ 7.24 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
06 September 2011   60 $ 7.24 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
02 August 2011   -1 $ 12.57 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
05 July 2011  bubble_chart   -1 $ 13.38 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
01 July 2011   -1 $ 15.75 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
20 March 2011  bubble_chart   -1 $ 0.75 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
28 February 2011   -1 $ 0.88 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
17 November 2010   -1 $ 0.23 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
22 July 2010   -1 $ 0.06 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt

 

The data for Bitcoin (USD) (exchange: CRYPTO symbol: BTC) was last updated 19 Mar 2026 13:39. Data for this stock is available from 17 Jul 2010 - 18 Mar 2026.