Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results laptop_car

Signal: 52 Week Low 26 Week Low 50 day low Double Seven Rate of Change Super Oversold Mega Dump MegaDump Lite
Double Bottom Williams %R (Weekly) Large Gap Down Super Oversold from 52W/RoC/MD/DB Best Buy Signals [ What are these? | Switch to MSFT's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target: 5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20% -or- Use trailing stop losses.
Show signal scores: Off Classic Original AI Model ML4 AI Model Threshold: All Low High Very High [ What are these scores? ]
Expectancy: 8.26%. Win rate: 93.75%. Sharpe Ratio: -0.057. Maximum drawdown: -30.37% on 03 November 2022.
Mean CAGR: 164.38%. Time in market: 1528 days. Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $2150.16 on 12 June 2024.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)

*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for Microsoft

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 16 signal(s) occurring before 22 May 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (93.75% * 8.75%) + (6.25% * 0.88%) - (0% * 0%) = 8.26%.
Wins: 15 Breakevens: 1 Losses: 0

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

Microsoft Analysis

Market sector: Technology.

External links: Seeking Alpha Research, Zacks Research.

These links may show useful information about why a stock's price has fallen significantly.

50 day low Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each 50 day low entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key: disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date and Score	Buy Signal	Price	Performance (mouseover for details)
			5%	6%	7.5%	10%	20%
27 March 2026 MEDIUM smart_toy0.972 factory0.767	50 Day Low	$ 359.34	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
23 February 2026 MEDIUM smart_toy0.97 factory0.557	50 Day Low	$ 389.74	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	schedule
20 January 2026 LOW smart_toy0.742 factory0.707	50 Day Low	$ 452.87	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	schedule	schedule	schedule
16 December 2025 MEDIUM smart_toy0.765 factory0.811	50 Day Low	$ 474.15	schedule	schedule	schedule	schedule	schedule
07 November 2025 MEDIUM smart_toy0.939 factory0.768	50 Day Low	$ 496.88	schedule	schedule	schedule	schedule	schedule
10 March 2025 MEDIUM smart_toy0.995 factory0.864 FIRE SALE	50 Day Low	$ 383.00	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
03 February 2025 MEDIUM smart_toy0.958 factory0.753	50 Day Low	$ 411.26	select_check_box	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt
02 August 2024 MEDIUM smart_toy0.647 factory0.79	50 Day Low	$ 410.49	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box
22 April 2024 MEDIUM smart_toy0.848 factory0.525	50 Day Low	$ 400.52	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box
26 September 2023 LOW smart_toy0.879 factory0.835	50 Day Low	$ 312.42	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
09 August 2023 LOW smart_toy0.916 factory0.67	50 Day Low	$ 322.42	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt
02 November 2022 MEDIUM smart_toy0.933 factory0.857 FIRE SALE	50 Day Low	$ 224.78	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt
15 September 2022 MEDIUM smart_toy0.947 factory0.835 FIRE SALE	50 Day Low	$ 247.58	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt
13 June 2022 MEDIUM smart_toy0.985 factory0.889 FIRE SALE	50 Day Low	$ 243.68	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt
26 April 2022 MEDIUM smart_toy0.945 factory0.836	50 Day Low	$ 273.86	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box
22 February 2022 MEDIUM smart_toy0.93 factory0.628 FIRE SALE	50 Day Low	$ 286.36	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box	select_check_box
10 January 2022 LOW smart_toy0.488 factory0.789	50 Day Low	$ 311.88	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box
21 September 2020 LOW smart_toy0.743 factory0.569	50 Day Low	$ 199.34	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt
09 March 2020 HIGH smart_toy0.979 factory0.89 FIRE SALE	50 Day Low	$ 150.40	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
24 December 2018 MEDIUM smart_toy0.98 factory0.899 FIRE SALE	50 Day Low	$ 93.98	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
20 November 2018 MEDIUM smart_toy0.945 factory0.894 FIRE SALE	50 Day Low	$ 99.72	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt
11 October 2018 MEDIUM smart_toy0.939 factory0.861	50 Day Low	$ 103.06	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt
27 June 2016 LOW smart_toy0.907 factory0.797	50 Day Low	$ 45.37	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
28 April 2016 LOW smart_toy0.831 factory0.657	50 Day Low	$ 46.43	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt

The data for Microsoft Corporation (exchange: XNAS symbol: MSFT) was last updated 30 May 2026 15:00. Data for this stock is available from 01 Dec 2015 - 29 May 2026.