Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results laptop_car

Buy indicator:          
              [ What are these indicators? | Switch to MSFT's monthly backtests ]
Profit target:           [ A higher % profit will take longer and is less likely to be achieved ]
Expectancy: 5.23%. See below chart for calculations and explanation.   Win rate: 92.86%.   Maximum drawdown: 30.37% on 03 November 2022.
Mean CAGR: 173.56%. Time in market: 939 days.   Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $1639.06 on 25 October 2023
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)
*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

 

Expectancy Calculations for Microsoft

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 14 signal(s) occurring before 20 December 2023 for a 5% profit target: (92.86% * 5.57%) + (7.14% * 0.88%) - (0% * 0%) = 5.23%.
Wins: 13 Breakevens: 1 Losses: 0

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

 

50 Day Low Backtest Summary

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each 50 day low entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 7.5% 10% 20%
16 December 2025 $474.15 schedule schedule schedule schedule
07 November 2025 $496.88 schedule schedule schedule schedule
31 March 2025 $373.96 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
11 February 2025 $410.54 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
22 April 2024 $400.52 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
26 September 2023 $312.42 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
09 August 2023 $322.42 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
02 November 2022 $224.78 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
15 September 2022 $247.58 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
13 June 2022 $243.68 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
09 May 2022 $267.32 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box
22 February 2022 $286.36 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box
10 January 2022 $311.88 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
21 September 2020 $199.34 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
09 March 2020 $150.40 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
21 December 2018 $97.93 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
11 October 2018 $103.06 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
27 June 2016 $45.37 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
28 April 2016 $46.43 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt

 

The data for Microsoft Corporation (exchange: XNAS symbol: MSFT) was last updated 27 Dec 2025 05:13. Data for this stock is available from 01 Dec 2015 - 26 Dec 2025.