Fastenal Company (FAST) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results

Buy indicator:                
              [ What are these indicators? | Switch to FAST's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target:               -or-  

Expectancy: 7.00%.   Win rate: 87.50%.   Sharpe Ratio: 0.402.   Maximum drawdown: -21.16% on 14 October 2022.
Mean CAGR: 112.43%. Time in market: 1102 days.   Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $1471.40 on 21 June 2023.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)


*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for Fastenal

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 8 signal(s) occurring before 06 April 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (87.50% * 7.90%) + (12.50% * 0.71%) - (0% * 0%) = 7.00%.
Wins: 7 Breakevens: 1 Losses: 0

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

Fastenal Analysis

Market sector: Industrials.

External links: Seeking Alpha Research, Zacks Research.

These links may show useful information about why a stock's price has fallen significantly.

 

Large Gap Down Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each large gap down entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date and Score Buy Signal Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
13 April 2026   LOW     Gap Down $ 47.27 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
13 October 2025  bubble_chart   MEDIUM     Gap Down $ 42.96 select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt schedule
05 September 2025  bubble_chart   MEDIUM     Gap Down $ 48.54 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
06 May 2025  bubble_chart   MEDIUM     Gap Down $ 39.90 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
18 December 2024  bubble_chart   MEDIUM     Gap Down $ 38.04 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
01 August 2024  bubble_chart   MEDIUM     Gap Down $ 34.46 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
11 April 2024  bubble_chart   MEDIUM     Gap Down $ 35.55 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
26 August 2022   MEDIUM     Gap Down $ 26.07 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
28 June 2022   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.973   mode_heat Gap Down $ 25.14 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
14 April 2022   MEDIUM     Gap Down $ 28.75 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
04 March 2021   LOW     Gap Down $ 22.58 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
13 October 2020   LOW     Gap Down $ 22.52 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
03 September 2020   LOW     Gap Down $ 23.86 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
11 June 2020   LOW     Gap Down $ 20.44 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
13 April 2020   LOW     Gap Down $ 15.93 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt

 

The data for Fastenal Company (exchange: XNAS symbol: FAST) was last updated 14 Apr 2026 13:02. Data for this stock is available from 01 Apr 2020 - 13 Apr 2026.