United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results

Expectancy Calculations for US Natural Gas

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 67 signal(s) occurring before 20 December 2023 for a 5% profit target: (68.66% * 7.53%) + (0% * 0%) - (31.34% * 63.09%) = -14.60%.
Wins: 46 Breakevens: 0 Losses: 21

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

Large Gap Down Backtest Summary

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each gap down entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

The data for United States Natural Gas Fund (exchange: ARCX symbol: UNG) was last updated 27 Dec 2025 06:34. Data for this ETF is available from 04 Jan 2021 - 26 Dec 2025.