United States Gasoline Fund (UGA) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results

Buy indicator:          
              [ What are these indicators? | Switch to UGA's monthly backtests ]
Profit target:           [ A higher % profit will take longer and is less likely to be achieved ]
Expectancy: 6.30%. See below chart for calculations and explanation.   Win rate: 100%.   Maximum drawdown: 5.73% on 12 December 2023.
Mean CAGR: 261.98%. Time in market: 116 days.   Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $1452.71 on 25 January 2024
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)
*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

 

Expectancy Calculations for Gasoline

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 7 signal(s) occurring before 20 December 2023 for a 5% profit target: (100% * 6.30%) + (0% * 0%) - (0% * 0%) = 6.30%.
Wins: 7 Breakevens: 0 Losses: 0

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

 

Williams %R (Weekly) Backtest Summary

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each Williams %R (weekly) entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 7.5% 10% 20%
16 December 2025 $60.98 schedule schedule schedule schedule
10 October 2025 $61.30 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt schedule
07 April 2025 $56.90 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
05 March 2025 $59.70 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt schedule
19 August 2024 $62.95 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
30 May 2024 $64.74 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box
12 December 2023 $57.64 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
08 November 2023 $61.14 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
03 May 2023 $54.31 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
07 December 2022 $51.14 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
07 September 2022 $50.96 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
04 August 2022 $56.96 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
20 August 2021 $32.44 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt

 

The data for United States Gasoline Fund (exchange: ARCX symbol: UGA) was last updated 27 Dec 2025 06:33. Data for this ETF is available from 04 Jan 2021 - 26 Dec 2025.