Swing Trading Backtester Tool

Use this interactive tool to backtest BTFDBot's oversold strategies for different years and stock types. There is also a monthly backtester for longer term trend following strategies.

The year selector selects the year the trades were entered. Losses will not be realised until two calendar years after the buy date. This normally results in most of the significant losses being booked in years where the market boomed (e.g. 2021) rather than major bear market years (e.g. 2022).


Average profit per trade (expectancy): 7.43% from 15 trade(s).

Key: select_check_box: profitable with CAGR above 15% select_check_box : profitable with CAGR between 5 and 15%
select_check_box : profitable but CAGR was below 5% disabled_by_default : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe) electric_bolt : high CAGR trade schedule : open trade

Stock Signal Signal Date Buy Price Performance Profit / Loss
Crypto Industry open_in_new Mega Dump 04 January 2023 $3.64 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt 8.64%
Bitcoin Miners open_in_new Mega Dump 04 January 2023 $4.90 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt 6.04%
Tesla open_in_new Mega Dump 10 January 2023 $119.96 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt 7.20%
NVIDIA open_in_new Mega Dump 10 January 2023 $15.70 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt 5.60%
Bitcoin Miners open_in_new Mega Dump 14 March 2023 $7.78 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt 7.52%
Crypto Industry open_in_new Mega Dump 17 March 2023 $5.38 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt 5.01%
John Wiley & Sons open_in_new Mega Dump 24 March 2023 $36.10 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt 6.25%
US Natural Gas open_in_new Mega Dump 11 April 2023 $27.96 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt 7.80%
Palantir Technologies open_in_new Mega Dump 30 August 2023 $15.90 select_check_box electric_bolt 6.57%
Crypto Industry open_in_new Mega Dump 31 August 2023 $7.80 select_check_box electric_bolt 5.89%
Bitcoin Miners open_in_new Mega Dump 01 September 2023 $11.50 select_check_box electric_bolt 19.09%
NextEra Energy open_in_new Mega Dump 16 October 2023 $53.50 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt 5.02%
John Wiley & Sons open_in_new Mega Dump 27 October 2023 $29.96 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt 5.09%
US Natural Gas open_in_new Mega Dump 26 December 2023 $19.64 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt 6.21%
Global Nickel Miners open_in_new Mega Dump 29 December 2023 $14.04 select_check_box electric_bolt 9.47%

Expectancy calculations: (Win% x Avg Win) + (Breakeven% x Avg Breakeven) – (Loss% x Avg Loss): (100% x 7.43%) + (0% x 0%) – (0% x 0%) = 7.43%

Strategy summary: buy stocks at Rate of Change buy signal and sell if it reaches the specified percentage profit target. If it doesn't reach the profit target after 365 days then adjust the profit target to the buy price. Wait for another 365 days for the stock to reach this new breakeven target. If it doesn't reach the breakeven target then sell at whatever price the stock is at. This strategy does not use stop losses. Full details of the trading strategy are here.

Some trades will have significantly exceeded their designated profit target due to gaps up at the market open. This can be a significantly higher price due to takeover bids or periods of extreme market volatility (e.g. during March 2020 or April 2025).

The current and previous year(s) may have trades in progress. These are excluded from expectancy calculations.

CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) is the percentage return a trade makes on an annualised basis.