Swing Trading Fixed Profit Backtester Tool

Use this interactive tool to backtest BTFDBot's oversold strategies for different years and stock types. There is also a monthly backtester for longer term trend following strategies.

The year selector selects the year the trades were entered. Losses will not be realised until two calendar years after the buy date. This normally results in most of the significant losses being booked in years where the market boomed (e.g. 2021) rather than major bear market years (e.g. 2022).

Year

% Profit Target

Signal Scoring

Signal Type help

Stock Type

Win rate: 87.38%
Average profit per trade: 6.12%.
Number of trades: 103
Average CAGR: 137206791.06%
Maximum Drawdown: -55.29%
Average Maximum Drawdown: -7.77%

Expectancy calculations:
(Win% x Avg Win) + (Breakeven% x Avg Breakeven) – (Loss% x Avg Loss): (87.38% x 8.51%) + (6.80% x 1.63%) – (5.83% x 24.48%) = 6.12%

All Trades

Win/Loss chart key: square: win square: breakeven square: loss

Table key: select_check_box: profitable with CAGR above 15% select_check_box : profitable with CAGR between 5 and 15%
select_check_box : profitable but CAGR was below 5% disabled_by_default : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe) electric_bolt : high CAGR trade schedule : open trade

No.	Stock	Signal and Score	Signal Date	Buy Price	Max. DD	Performance	Profit / Loss	Running Avg
1	Johnson & Johnson open_in_new	Rate of Change 20	01 Feb 2023	$163.96	-13.68%	select_check_box	0.29%	0.29 %
2	Akamai Technologies open_in_new	Rate of Change 0	01 Mar 2023	$72.70	-2.03%	select_check_box electric_bolt	7.70%	4 %
3	Morningstar open_in_new bubble_chart	Rate of Change 5	02 Mar 2023	$206.49	-15.09%	select_check_box	8.64%	5.54 %
4	NV5 Global open_in_new	Rate of Change 30	02 Mar 2023	$26.46	-14.08%	select_check_box	7.62%	6.06 %
5	Commerce Bancshares open_in_new	Rate of Change 20	16 Mar 2023	$59.66	-30.74%	select_check_box	1.55%	5.16 %
6	Hormel Foods open_in_new	Rate of Change 20	16 Mar 2023	$39.30	-27.94%	disabled_by_default	-24.21%	0.27 %
7	Hasbro open_in_new	Rate of Change 20	16 Mar 2023	$47.31		select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	9.03%	1.52 %
8	Principal Financial Group open_in_new	Rate of Change 10	20 Mar 2023	$71.73	-1.32%	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	7.60%	2.28 %
9	First Financial Bankshares open_in_new bubble_chart	Rate of Change 10	20 Mar 2023	$31.43	-25.99%	select_check_box	1.40%	2.18 %
10	Gorman-Rupp Company open_in_new bubble_chart	Rate of Change 25	20 Mar 2023	$23.98	-1.94%	select_check_box electric_bolt	8.84%	2.85 %
11	Charles Schwab open_in_new	Rate of Change 10	20 Mar 2023	$57.34	-18.98%	select_check_box electric_bolt	12.54%	3.73 %
12	Calavo Growers open_in_new	Rate of Change 10	20 Mar 2023	$23.18		select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	13.18%	4.51 %
13	American International Group open_in_new	Rate of Change 10	21 Mar 2023	$50.80	-8.07%	select_check_box electric_bolt	7.50%	4.74 %
14	Globe Life open_in_new bubble_chart	Rate of Change 10	21 Mar 2023	$110.00	-6.10%	select_check_box	8.16%	4.99 %
15	Metlife open_in_new	Rate of Change 10	21 Mar 2023	$58.54	-16.97%	select_check_box	7.60%	5.16 %
16	Equitable Holdings open_in_new	Rate of Change 10	21 Mar 2023	$25.38	-12.10%	select_check_box electric_bolt	8.23%	5.35 %
17	Newell Brands open_in_new	Rate of Change 25	22 Mar 2023	$11.58	-0.30%	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	7.73%	5.49 %
18	Cullen Frost Bankers open_in_new	Rate of Change 35	27 Mar 2023	$103.07	-10.42%	select_check_box electric_bolt	7.51%	5.61 %
19	Capitol Federal Financial open_in_new	Rate of Change 25	06 Apr 2023	$6.68	-35.53%	select_check_box	0.00%	5.31 %
20	Cal-Maine Foods open_in_new bubble_chart	Rate of Change 15	04 May 2023	$47.13	-8.29%	select_check_box	8.43%	5.47 %
21	Keurig Dr Pepper open_in_new	Rate of Change 20	04 May 2023	$31.95	-12.93%	select_check_box	5.56%	5.47 %
22	Crown Castle open_in_new bubble_chart	Rate of Change 5	05 May 2023	$111.68	-25.16%	select_check_box	2.37%	5.33 %
23	Tompkins Financial open_in_new	Rate of Change 35	05 May 2023	$54.58	-7.08%	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	9.99%	5.53 %
24	Tootsie Roll Industries open_in_new bubble_chart	Rate of Change 25	05 May 2023	$38.03	-26.61%	disabled_by_default	-11.14%	4.84 %
25	Prospect Capital open_in_new	Rate of Change 50	08 May 2023	$5.80	-3.88%	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	7.67%	4.95 %
26	WhiteHorse Finance open_in_new	Rate of Change 50	09 May 2023	$10.46		select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	8.26%	5.08 %
27	Commerce Bancshares open_in_new	Rate of Change 30	09 May 2023	$47.30	-12.65%	select_check_box	8.20%	5.19 %
28	Capitol Federal Financial open_in_new	Rate of Change 25	15 May 2023	$5.24		select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	7.78%	5.29 %
29	Genpact open_in_new	Rate of Change 10	16 May 2023	$36.21		select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	7.91%	5.38 %
30	Metlife open_in_new	Rate of Change 15	17 May 2023	$49.40	-1.11%	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	7.92%	5.46 %
31	Newell Brands open_in_new	Rate of Change 30	19 May 2023	$8.63	-10.57%	select_check_box electric_bolt	9.29%	5.59 %
32	Ulta Beauty open_in_new	Rate of Change 40	05 Jun 2023	$421.18	-1.12%	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	7.51%	5.65 %
33	Flowers Foods open_in_new bubble_chart	Rate of Change 25	05 Jun 2023	$24.50	-32.94%	disabled_by_default	-32.96%	4.48 %
34	Target Corp open_in_new	Rate of Change 30	06 Jun 2023	$128.02	-19.49%	select_check_box	8.89%	4.61 %
35	Autozone open_in_new bubble_chart	Rate of Change 5	08 Jun 2023	$2332.52		select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	7.89%	4.7 %
36	Dollar Tree open_in_new bubble_chart	Rate of Change 15	08 Jun 2023	$132.88	-0.87%	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	8.23%	4.8 %
37	Kenvue open_in_new	Rate of Change	09 Jun 2023	$25.08	-28.81%	disabled_by_default	-14.48%	4.28 %
38	Campbell Soup Company open_in_new bubble_chart	Rate of Change 15	12 Jun 2023	$45.22	-27.88%	select_check_box	0.27%	4.17 %
39	Humana open_in_new	Rate of Change 10	28 Jun 2023	$442.15	-4.04%	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	9.04%	4.3 %
40	Masimo open_in_new	Rate of Change 25	25 Jul 2023	$114.09		select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	7.77%	4.38 %
41	RTX Corp open_in_new bubble_chart	Rate of Change 35	28 Jul 2023	$86.42	-19.65%	select_check_box	7.79%	4.47 %
42	Amdocs Ltd open_in_new	Rate of Change 5	09 Aug 2023	$86.84	-9.05%	select_check_box	7.72%	4.54 %
43	Resmed open_in_new bubble_chart	Rate of Change 25	14 Aug 2023	$179.37	-23.77%	select_check_box	7.64%	4.62 %
44	NNN REIT open_in_new	Rate of Change 20	17 Aug 2023	$38.05	-10.35%	select_check_box electric_bolt	7.59%	4.68 %
45	Doximity open_in_new	Rate of Change 0	21 Aug 2023	$22.70	-12.36%	select_check_box electric_bolt	10.27%	4.81 %
46	Electronic Arts open_in_new	Rate of Change 5	21 Aug 2023	$118.16		select_check_box electric_bolt	7.56%	4.87 %
47	Dollar Tree open_in_new bubble_chart	Rate of Change 15	11 Sep 2023	$116.24	-10.46%	select_check_box electric_bolt	9.11%	4.96 %
48	ABM Industries open_in_new bubble_chart	Rate of Change 30	13 Sep 2023	$39.72	-1.67%	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	9.29%	5.05 %
49	RTX Corp open_in_new bubble_chart	Rate of Change 35	15 Sep 2023	$75.45	-7.97%	select_check_box electric_bolt	8.78%	5.12 %
50	Chewy open_in_new	Rate of Change 25	22 Sep 2023	$18.26	-8.38%	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	8.68%	5.19 %
51	J.M. Smucker open_in_new bubble_chart	Rate of Change 35	25 Sep 2023	$125.09	-24.24%	disabled_by_default	-12.54%	4.85 %
52	Kenvue open_in_new	Rate of Change	26 Sep 2023	$20.62	-13.41%	select_check_box	8.05%	4.91 %
53	HP open_in_new	Rate of Change 25	29 Sep 2023	$25.72	-0.23%	select_check_box electric_bolt	7.97%	4.97 %
54	Clorox Company open_in_new	Rate of Change 25	02 Oct 2023	$129.88	-10.54%	select_check_box electric_bolt	8.37%	5.03 %
55	Brown-Forman open_in_new	Rate of Change 35	03 Oct 2023	$57.46	-55.29%	disabled_by_default	-51.53%	4 %
56	Atmos Energy open_in_new bubble_chart	Rate of Change 35	05 Oct 2023	$106.15	-0.38%	select_check_box electric_bolt	7.50%	4.06 %
57	3M Company open_in_new	Rate of Change 25	05 Oct 2023	$85.86	-2.41%	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	9.35%	4.16 %
58	Realty Income open_in_new	Rate of Change 20	05 Oct 2023	$49.29	-5.90%	select_check_box electric_bolt	7.58%	4.22 %
59	Workday open_in_new	Rate of Change 0	06 Oct 2023	$208.08	-0.99%	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	7.82%	4.28 %
60	York Water Company open_in_new	Rate of Change 45	06 Oct 2023	$37.26	-4.82%	select_check_box electric_bolt	7.99%	4.34 %
61	Black Hills open_in_new bubble_chart	Rate of Change 50	06 Oct 2023	$47.50		select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	8.49%	4.41 %
62	Consolidated Edison open_in_new bubble_chart	Rate of Change 50	06 Oct 2023	$84.06		select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	8.56%	4.47 %
63	Essential Utilities open_in_new	Rate of Change 45	06 Oct 2023	$32.80	-1.57%	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	7.67%	4.52 %
64	Alliant Energy open_in_new	Rate of Change 50	06 Oct 2023	$47.35		select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	9.71%	4.61 %
65	American Water Works open_in_new bubble_chart	Rate of Change 25	09 Oct 2023	$119.06	-3.91%	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	7.59%	4.65 %
66	Eversource Energy open_in_new	Rate of Change 35	09 Oct 2023	$56.52	-6.84%	select_check_box electric_bolt	9.03%	4.72 %
67	NNN REIT open_in_new	Rate of Change 20	09 Oct 2023	$34.33		select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	8.17%	4.77 %
68	Prologis open_in_new	Rate of Change 15	09 Oct 2023	$107.20	-9.59%	select_check_box electric_bolt	9.41%	4.84 %
69	Edison International open_in_new bubble_chart	Rate of Change 35	09 Oct 2023	$62.20	-0.14%	select_check_box electric_bolt	8.09%	4.88 %
70	PepsiCo open_in_new	Rate of Change 40	10 Oct 2023	$162.47	-3.05%	select_check_box	7.64%	4.92 %
71	Berkshire Hathaway open_in_new	Rate of Change 25	10 Oct 2023	$347.78	-3.99%	select_check_box electric_bolt	7.70%	4.96 %
72	Dominion Energy open_in_new bubble_chart	Rate of Change 35	10 Oct 2023	$41.26	-6.98%	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	7.50%	5 %
73	Coca-Cola Company open_in_new	Rate of Change 35	10 Oct 2023	$53.23	-2.35%	select_check_box electric_bolt	7.88%	5.04 %
74	McDonalds open_in_new	Rate of Change 35	10 Oct 2023	$248.71	-1.61%	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	7.60%	5.07 %
75	NextEra Energy open_in_new	Rate of Change 35	10 Oct 2023	$49.76		select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	7.51%	5.1 %
76	Stepan Company open_in_new	Rate of Change 40	10 Oct 2023	$68.27	-5.77%	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	7.58%	5.14 %
77	Sysco Corp open_in_new	Rate of Change 30	10 Oct 2023	$63.98	-1.62%	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	9.28%	5.19 %
78	Church & Dwight open_in_new bubble_chart	Rate of Change 35	11 Oct 2023	$87.61	-2.08%	select_check_box electric_bolt	7.78%	5.22 %
79	Chesapeake Utilities open_in_new	Rate of Change 45	11 Oct 2023	$92.82	-7.49%	select_check_box electric_bolt	7.74%	5.26 %
80	Monster Beverage open_in_new	Rate of Change 25	11 Oct 2023	$50.15	-4.85%	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	12.46%	5.35 %
81	McCormick & Co. open_in_new	Rate of Change 35	16 Oct 2023	$61.40	-2.30%	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	7.59%	5.37 %
82	Mondelez International open_in_new	Rate of Change 25	17 Oct 2023	$62.63		select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	8.31%	5.41 %
83	Keurig Dr Pepper open_in_new	Rate of Change 20	17 Oct 2023	$28.41	-0.41%	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	8.83%	5.45 %
84	Hormel Foods open_in_new	Rate of Change 30	18 Oct 2023	$32.17	-10.54%	select_check_box electric_bolt	8.92%	5.49 %
85	John Wiley & Sons open_in_new	Rate of Change 35	19 Oct 2023	$30.42	-2.66%	select_check_box electric_bolt	7.64%	5.52 %
86	Genuine Parts Company open_in_new bubble_chart	Rate of Change 25	26 Oct 2023	$127.88	-0.97%	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	7.90%	5.55 %
87	Thermo Fisher Scientific open_in_new	Rate of Change 35	31 Oct 2023	$440.04		select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	9.01%	5.58 %
88	AGNC Investment Corp open_in_new	Rate of Change 35	31 Oct 2023	$7.15		select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	10.83%	5.64 %
89	T. Rowe Price Group open_in_new	Rate of Change 35	01 Nov 2023	$90.98		select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	7.82%	5.67 %
90	Sanofi open_in_new	Rate of Change 45	01 Nov 2023	€86.58	-2.94%	select_check_box electric_bolt	7.85%	5.69 %
91	Hasbro open_in_new	Rate of Change 50	01 Nov 2023	$45.52	-5.67%	select_check_box electric_bolt	7.90%	5.72 %
92	Moderna Inc open_in_new	Rate of Change 65	01 Nov 2023	$75.71	-10.46%	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	15.14%	5.82 %
93	ADP open_in_new	Rate of Change 50	02 Nov 2023	$212.57		select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	7.63%	5.84 %
94	Chevron open_in_new bubble_chart	Rate of Change 45	02 Nov 2023	$143.58	-2.83%	select_check_box electric_bolt	7.96%	5.86 %
95	Scout24 S.E. open_in_new	Rate of Change 25	02 Nov 2023	€59.00	-0.69%	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	7.75%	5.88 %
96	LKQ Corp open_in_new	Rate of Change 50	02 Nov 2023	$43.19		select_check_box electric_bolt	7.89%	5.9 %
97	Enphase Energy open_in_new bubble_chart	Rate of Change 35	03 Nov 2023	$81.21	-5.80%	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	14.34%	5.99 %
98	Astec Industries open_in_new	Rate of Change 35	06 Nov 2023	$31.32	-2.89%	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	8.27%	6.01 %
99	Henry Schein open_in_new	Rate of Change 60	07 Nov 2023	$62.73		select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	9.17%	6.04 %
100	KBR open_in_new bubble_chart	Rate of Change 35	08 Nov 2023	$51.46	-0.30%	select_check_box electric_bolt	8.03%	6.06 %
101	Unum Group open_in_new bubble_chart	Rate of Change 35	09 Nov 2023	$43.38	-2.42%	select_check_box electric_bolt	7.66%	6.08 %
102	Bayer AG open_in_new	Rate of Change 5	01 Dec 2023	€31.40	-1.34%	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	8.96%	6.11 %
103	Arthur J. Gallagher open_in_new	Rate of Change 5	26 Dec 2023	$222.22		select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	7.54%	6.12 %

Swing Trading Backtest Simulation Results

The Capital Allocation and Equity Curve charts above show the hypothetical results from swing trading the specific stocks in the specific year.

The backtester uses $1000 starting capital and invests $100 into each stock [it assumes all stocks are listed in $]. If no funds are available then it does not buy stocks until there is capital available. Note that this backtester does not buy all of the trades listed in the table above. It may not have sufficient funds to buy each signal.

The results are highly dependent on two factors: the time each swing trade takes to complete and the number of buy signals. If there are no buy signals then the backtester will accumulate cash.

This Gantt chart shows an overview of when trades were entered and exited ( square : profit square : breakeven square : loss ).

treeGridsfGantt_41_gridcontrol_header_table

Name

Start Date

End Date

Duration

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)

2/1/2023

8/28/2024

411 days

Akamai Technologies (AKAM)

3/1/2023

4/7/2023

28 days

Morningstar (MORN)

3/2/2023

7/26/2023

105 days

NV5 Global (NVEE)

3/2/2023

12/27/2023

215 days

Hasbro (HAS)

3/16/2023

3/28/2023

9 days

Commerce Bancshares (CBSH)

3/16/2023

7/15/2024

348 days

Hormel Foods (HRL)

3/16/2023

3/17/2025

523 days

Principal Financial Group (PFG)

3/20/2023

4/18/2023

22 days

Gorman-Rupp Company (GRC)

3/20/2023

6/2/2023

55 days

First Financial Bankshares (FFIN)

3/20/2023

3/27/2024

268 days

Capitol Federal Financial (CFFN)

4/6/2023

10/23/2024

405 days

Cal-Maine Foods (CALM)

5/4/2023

12/8/2023

157 days

Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP)

5/4/2023

5/3/2024

262 days

Ulta Beauty (ULTA)

6/5/2023

6/21/2023

13 days

Humana (HUM)

6/28/2023

8/1/2023

25 days

RTX Corp (RTX)

7/28/2023

3/18/2024

167 days

Amdocs Ltd (DOX)

8/9/2023

3/13/2024

156 days

Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG)

12/26/2023

1/23/2024

21 days

Jan 29, 2023	Feb 05, 2023	Feb 12, 2023	Feb 19, 2023	Feb 26, 2023	Mar 05, 2023	Mar 12, 2023	Mar 19, 2023	Mar 26, 2023	Apr 02, 2023	Apr 09, 2023	Apr 16, 2023	Apr 23, 2023	Apr 30, 2023	May 07, 2023	May 14, 2023	May 21, 2023	May 28, 2023	Jun 04, 2023	Jun 11, 2023	Jun 18, 2023	Jun 25, 2023	Jul 02, 2023	Jul 09, 2023	Jul 16, 2023	Jul 23, 2023	Jul 30, 2023	Aug 06, 2023	Aug 13, 2023	Aug 20, 2023	Aug 27, 2023	Sep 03, 2023	Sep 10, 2023	Sep 17, 2023	Sep 24, 2023	Oct 01, 2023	Oct 08, 2023	Oct 15, 2023	Oct 22, 2023	Oct 29, 2023	Nov 05, 2023	Nov 12, 2023	Nov 19, 2023	Nov 26, 2023	Dec 03, 2023	Dec 10, 2023	Dec 17, 2023	Dec 24, 2023	Dec 31, 2023	Jan 07, 2024	Jan 14, 2024	Jan 21, 2024	Jan 28, 2024	Feb 04, 2024	Feb 11, 2024	Feb 18, 2024	Feb 25, 2024	Mar 03, 2024	Mar 10, 2024	Mar 17, 2024	Mar 24, 2024	Mar 31, 2024	Apr 07, 2024	Apr 14, 2024	Apr 21, 2024	Apr 28, 2024	May 05, 2024	May 12, 2024	May 19, 2024	May 26, 2024	Jun 02, 2024	Jun 09, 2024	Jun 16, 2024	Jun 23, 2024	Jun 30, 2024	Jul 07, 2024	Jul 14, 2024	Jul 21, 2024	Jul 28, 2024	Aug 04, 2024	Aug 11, 2024	Aug 18, 2024	Aug 25, 2024	Sep 01, 2024	Sep 08, 2024	Sep 15, 2024	Sep 22, 2024	Sep 29, 2024	Oct 06, 2024	Oct 13, 2024	Oct 20, 2024	Oct 27, 2024	Nov 03, 2024	Nov 10, 2024	Nov 17, 2024	Nov 24, 2024	Dec 01, 2024	Dec 08, 2024	Dec 15, 2024	Dec 22, 2024	Dec 29, 2024	Jan 05, 2025	Jan 12, 2025	Jan 19, 2025	Jan 26, 2025	Feb 02, 2025	Feb 09, 2025	Feb 16, 2025	Feb 23, 2025	Mar 02, 2025	Mar 09, 2025	Mar 16, 2025

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Strategy summary: buy stocks at Rate of Change buy signal and sell if it reaches the specified percentage profit target. If it doesn't reach the profit target after 365 days then adjust the profit target to the buy price. Wait for another 365 days for the stock to reach this new breakeven target. If it doesn't reach the breakeven target then sell at whatever price the stock is at. This strategy does not use stop losses. Full details of the trading strategy are here.

Some trades will have significantly exceeded their designated profit target due to gaps up at the market open. This can be a significantly higher price due to takeover bids or periods of extreme market volatility (e.g. during March 2020 or April 2025).

The current and previous year(s) may have trades in progress. These are excluded from expectancy calculations.

CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) is the percentage return a trade makes on an annualised basis.